Gold (XAU) Silver (XAG) Daily Forecast: Mixed Sentiment Persists with ADP Data and NFP Report Looming

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) turned bearish on Thursday, retreating to $2,658.44 after failing to extend gains near $2,659. The precious metal faces mounting pressure as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens, buoyed by expectations that the Federal Reserve will slow its pace of interest rate cuts. The USD hovers near a two-year high, driven by stable labor market data and rising Treasury yields, leaving gold vulnerable.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes revealed policymakers’ preference for cautious monetary easing, citing slowing inflation. Meanwhile, ADP data showed US private sector payrolls rose by 122,000 in December, missing expectations and marking a decline from November’s 146,000. Initial Jobless Claims, however, fell to 201,000, the lowest since February 2024, signaling continued labor market strength.

The 10-year US Treasury yield hit its highest level since April 2025, further reducing gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset. Investors now await Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could provide crucial insights into the Fed’s next policy moves.

Silver Holds Ground Amid Safe-Haven Demand

Silver (XAG/USD) traded modestly higher, reaching $30.13 with an intraday high of $30.18. The metal has retained its safe-haven appeal amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty. However, like gold, silver remains under pressure from the strengthening US Dollar, which continues to attract investor attention over non-yielding metals.

Outlook: Fed Speeches and NFP Report

Investor focus now shifts to upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials and the much-anticipated NFP report on Friday. These events will likely influence the trajectory of gold and silver prices in the short term.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold consolidates near $2,658.44, facing resistance at $2,665.14, while silver hovers around $30.08, awaiting clarity from Fed speeches and NFP data.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,658.44, down 0.12%, as the market consolidates near the pivot point of $2,645.45. The 4-hour chart highlights a cautious tone, with immediate resistance at $2,665.14 and further upside capped at $2,690.80. On the downside, support lies at $2,624.20, with a deeper level at $2,602.96, marking key zones for potential bearish moves.

The 50 EMA at $2,641.68 is trending slightly below the price, signaling short-term bullish momentum, while the 200 EMA at $2,642.90 adds stability. However, the bearish bias remains intact if prices fall below the $2,645.45 pivot point.

A sustained break above $2,665.14 may trigger bullish momentum, targeting $2,690.80. Conversely, a move below $2,645.45 could lead to sharp declines toward $2,624.20.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading at $30.08, down 0.08%, reflecting cautious sentiment as it hovers near the pivot point at $30.31. The 4-hour chart indicates key resistance at $30.73, with an extended target at $31.43 if bullish momentum resumes.

On the downside, immediate support lies at $29.44, with the next critical level at $28.79.

Technical indicators paint a mixed picture. The 50 EMA at $29.82 signals short-term support, while the 200 EMA at $30.29 highlights a potential pivot zone. A sustained move above $30.31 could reignite bullish momentum toward $30.73, while failure to hold above this level may drive further selling pressure to test $29.44.