Gold (XAU) Silver (XAG) Daily Forecast: PCE Report and Fed Commentary May Shift Trends

By:

Arslan Ali

Published: Mar 25, 2025, 07:33 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

Gold holds above $3,000 as Fed rate cut expectations and economic uncertainty support price stability.
Silver trades near $33.16, buoyed by Fed easing hopes and a bullish EMA crossover on the 4-hour chart.
US PMI data and PCE inflation report could drive short-term volatility in gold and silver markets.

In this article:

Gold

+0.38%

Silver

+2.38%

Market Overview

During Tuesday’s Asian session, gold (XAU/USD) remained steady above the $3,000 level, despite lacking strong upside momentum. The metal’s stability reflects a market in wait-and-see mode, with investors weighing the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook against a firmer US dollar and improving risk sentiment.

Silver (XAG/USD) also edged higher, trading around $33.16, supported by rate cut expectations even as the dollar’s strength capped further gains.

Fed Policy Expectations Support Metals

Gold continues to hold above the $3,000 psychological threshold, bolstered by expectations of potential rate cuts later this year. The Federal Reserve’s revised 2025 growth forecast and persistent inflation concerns have added uncertainty to its policy trajectory.

Although the Fed has projected two 25 basis point cuts in 2025, market participants are increasingly pricing in an earlier move, potentially in response to tariff-related economic headwinds. This has tempered US dollar gains and supported non-yielding assets like gold and silver.

Silver, more industrial in nature, remains sensitive to economic developments. Hopes of increased fiscal support in China and tentative geopolitical progress in Eastern Europe have also reduced safe-haven inflows, but improving global manufacturing sentiment continues to offer a base for silver prices.

Stronger Dollar, Mixed Sentiment Limit Upside

The US Dollar Index (DXY) holds near a three-week high, driven by stronger-than-expected US data. The S&P Global Composite PMI for March rose to 53.5 from 51.6, reinforcing confidence in US economic resilience.

However, uncertainty around trade policy and inflation’s persistence complicates the Fed’s ability to hold rates steady. This ambiguity has helped gold avoid a deeper pullback despite the dollar’s strength.

Key Data Ahead Could Drive Volatility

Investor attention now turns to upcoming US data, including March new home sales, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index—all scheduled for release Tuesday.

Later this week, Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index will be critical in shaping gold’s short-term outlook, especially if inflation deviates from expectations.

Additionally, scheduled remarks from FOMC officials may add to market volatility.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold – Chart

Gold is hovering around $3,016.98 in early trade, slightly below the 50-day EMA at $3,020.32, but still comfortably within a broader upward channel on the 4-hour chart. The pivot point at $3,006.12 is holding firm as a short-term floor, reinforcing a cautiously bullish tone.

As long as gold stays above this level, buyers remain in control, with immediate resistance levels at $3,033.36 and $3,055.20 on the radar. A break above those could invite another leg higher.

On the flip side, if price slips below $2,982.37, bearish pressure may intensify, potentially dragging gold toward $2,955.48. For now, the upward channel structure suggests gold’s bias remains intact—especially if buyers can reclaim the $3,020 zone and build from there.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver – Chart

Silver is trading around $33.16, holding just above its pivot point at $33.01 and showing mild gains on the session. The price remains supported by an upward channel on the 4-hour chart, reinforcing a near-term bullish trend.

Technically, silver is also benefiting from a bullish EMA crossover, with the 50-day EMA at $33.26 now above the 200-day EMA at $33.02—often a signal of strengthening momentum.

If bulls can clear resistance at $33.58, the next target lies at $33.94. On the downside, $32.66 serves as immediate support, followed by $32.33.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.