Gold (XAU) Silver (XAG) Daily Forecast: Trade Tensions Boost Metals, US NFP in Focus

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) extended its rally, trading near $2,863.14 after touching an intraday high of $2,870. Investors flocked to the precious metal as uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China trade policies intensified. Market concerns over President Donald Trump’s new tariffs on Chinese imports have fueled demand for gold, a traditional safe-haven asset.

In addition to geopolitical concerns, expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts are supporting gold prices. With U.S. Treasury yields at their lowest level since December, non-yielding assets like gold have become more attractive to investors.

Analysts anticipate that if upcoming U.S. job data shows signs of a weakening labor market, the Fed may be compelled to cut rates, further strengthening gold’s bullish outlook.

Silver Faces Headwinds as Industrial Demand Wavers

Silver (XAG/USD) is under pressure, trading at $32.17 after hitting a low of $32.13. Market caution ahead of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report has limited silver’s upside potential, as investors await signals on the Fed’s next move. A stronger-than-expected jobs report could bolster the U.S. dollar, weighing on silver prices.

Moreover, silver, which has significant industrial applications, faces added strain from ongoing trade tensions. Concerns over weaker manufacturing demand due to disrupted supply chains have restrained silver’s bullish momentum. However, if the Fed signals a more dovish stance, silver could find support from lower Treasury yields.

U.S. Job Data and Fed Policy Shape Market Outlook

The latest U.S. jobless claims report showed an increase to 219,000 from the previous 208,000, signaling potential weakness in the labor market. This has strengthened expectations that the Fed may pursue further rate cuts in 2025. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that while the administration is less concerned with the Fed’s policy direction, it remains focused on lowering 10-year Treasury yields.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve officials remain divided on inflation risks. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee downplayed inflation concerns, while Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan noted that the labor market remains strong enough to delay rate cuts. Despite mixed signals, the U.S. dollar failed to gain significant traction, allowing gold to maintain its upward momentum.

As investors prepare for the upcoming NFP report, all eyes remain on employment trends. If job growth weakens, gold prices could extend their rally on expectations of looser monetary policy. Conversely, a strong labor market reading may boost the dollar and put pressure on gold.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold remains bullish above $2,849.80, with resistance at $2,882.44. Silver struggles below $31.91, facing resistance at $32.53. U.S. job data could shape the next price movement.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is holding steady at $2,863.14, up 0.25%, as buyers maintain control above the key pivot point at $2,849.80. Immediate resistance sits at $2,882.44, and a break above this level could push prices toward the next upside target at $2,902.60.

However, if gold fails to sustain momentum, support at $2,834.52 may come into play, with a deeper floor at $2,812.95.

The 50-day EMA at $2,842.48 serves as dynamic support, reinforcing the bullish outlook. Meanwhile, the 200-day EMA at $2,777.79 signals long-term strength. If gold holds above $2,849.80, upside potential remains strong, but a break below this level could trigger renewed selling pressure.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is hovering at $32.17, down 0.11%, as it struggles to gain momentum above the pivot point at $31.91. Immediate resistance stands at $32.53, and a break above this level could open the door for a rally toward $32.92.

However, failure to hold above $31.91 could lead to further downside pressure, with key support at $31.40 and a deeper floor at $30.96.

The 50-day EMA at $31.94 is providing dynamic resistance, while the 200-day EMA at $31.12 suggests a strong long-term support zone. If silver maintains its footing above $31.91, a bullish push remains likely. A drop below this level, however, could intensify selling pressure.