Gold (XAU) Silver (XAG) Daily Forecast: Trade Tensions Drive Gold Higher, Silver Eyes $31.90 Breakout

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) prices climbed to $2,815, reaching an intra-day high of $2,824 as investor concerns over potential economic fallout from U.S. trade tariffs fueled demand for the safe-haven asset. The ongoing anxiety surrounding U.S. protectionist measures has driven gold’s upward trajectory for four consecutive sessions.

Investors are increasingly wary that new tariffs could dampen economic growth and trigger inflationary pressures, making gold an attractive hedge. “The combination of trade uncertainties and inflation fears is pushing investors toward gold,” noted a senior market strategist.

Additionally, expectations of two potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year are enhancing gold’s appeal, as lower rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

However, the recent suspension of tariffs on Mexico and Canada, following a border security agreement, has improved investor sentiment toward riskier assets. This shift has lifted U.S. Treasury yields and buoyed equity markets, which could cap further gold price gains in the short term.

Silver Faces Headwinds from Risk-On Sentiment and Stronger Dollar

Silver (XAG/USD) traded at $31.43 after dipping to an intra-day low of $31.36. Unlike gold, silver is grappling with downward pressure, primarily due to improved risk sentiment following the U.S.’s tariff pause with Mexico and Canada.

This development has strengthened the U.S. Dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, both of which weigh on silver prices.

Despite these pressures, silver’s decline remains moderate, reflecting its dual role as both an industrial and precious metal. Market participants are closely watching upcoming U.S. economic data, which could shift the current dynamics if signs of economic weakness re-emerge.

Economic Indicators Support U.S. Resilience, Impacting Precious Metals

Recent U.S. economic data has shown resilience despite trade tensions. The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9 in January from 49.3 in December, surpassing expectations and indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector.

The Prices Paid Index climbed to 54.9 from 52.5, signaling growing inflationary pressures, while the Employment Index and New Orders Index both posted gains, reflecting a strengthening job market and increased demand.

These robust figures support the U.S. Dollar, which could limit further upside for gold and silver. However, persistent trade uncertainties and inflation concerns continue to underpin safe-haven demand for both metals.

Investors will closely monitor upcoming U.S. job openings and factory orders for further market direction.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold is trading bullish above $2,810.43, targeting $2,830.37. Silver (XAG/USD) holds support at $31.27, with upside potential toward $31.90 if momentum strengthens.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is holding steady at $2,815.62, up a modest 0.03%, reflecting cautious optimism in the market. The price remains above the key pivot point at $2,810.43, signaling a bullish bias as long as this level holds. Immediate resistance is seen at $2,830.37, with a breakout potentially pushing prices toward $2,846.74.

On the downside, support is found at $2,797.84, aligning with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, a critical zone for a potential bounce. The 50-EMA at $2,791.46 offers additional support, while the 200-EMA at $2,743.92 reinforces the broader bullish trend.

Traders should watch for sustained moves above $2,830.37 for confirmation of upward momentum, while a drop below $2,810.43 could trigger sharp selling pressure.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading at $31.43, down 0.48%, showing signs of consolidation after recent gains. The price is holding just above the key pivot point at $31.27, suggesting that the bullish bias remains intact for now.

Immediate resistance lies at $31.69, and a breakout above this level could pave the way toward $31.90. On the downside, support is seen at $30.99, with stronger backing at $30.78 if selling pressure intensifies.

The 50-EMA at $31.18 offers dynamic support, reinforcing the current uptrend, while the 200-EMA at $30.68 underscores the broader bullish structure. A sustained move above $31.27 keeps the upward momentum alive, but a break below could trigger sharper declines.