Gold (XAU) Silver (XAG) Daily Forecast: Trade War Tensions Fuel Precious Metals Rally

Market Overview

Gold prices (XAU/USD) climbed to $2,863 at the start of the week, supported by a weaker US dollar and growing speculation about Federal Reserve rate cuts. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against six major currencies, is hovering near 107.30, reflecting investor uncertainty.

Despite US inflation data meeting expectations, traders still expect two rate cuts by the Fed in 2025, with the first potentially arriving in June and another in September. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, making it more attractive to investors.

Additionally, concerns over economic growth due to US trade policies have fueled demand for safe-haven assets. President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese goods have raised fears of slower global trade, pushing investors toward gold.

Silver Climbs Amid Inflation and Geopolitical Uncertainty

Silver (XAG/USD) also saw gains, trading around $31.23, after reaching an intra-day high of $31.41. The rally was driven by a weaker dollar and increasing safe-haven demand as geopolitical risks remain elevated.

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 0.3% in January, while core PCE inflation slowed to 2.6% from 2.9% in December. The report, combined with a 0.2% drop in consumer spending, the largest decline in four years, has increased concerns about slowing economic growth—a bullish signal for both gold and silver.

Gold & Silver React to Trade Tensions – What’s Next?

Markets are bracing for further uncertainty as US trade policies escalate. Trump’s plan to increase tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports starting Tuesday, on top of the existing 10% duties on Chinese goods, has heightened trade war fears.

Meanwhile, China is considering retaliatory measures, potentially targeting US agricultural and food products. The rising uncertainty continues to push investors toward precious metals, reinforcing gold and silver’s safe-haven appeal.

Investors are now closely watching US economic reports, including the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the Nonfarm Payrolls report, which could influence the dollar, interest rate expectations, and precious metal prices in the coming days.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold remains bullish above $2,841, but a break above $2,878 is needed for further upside. Silver must reclaim $31.40 to sustain momentum, or risk falling toward $30.81 support.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is trading at $2,863.67, inching higher but still facing strong resistance ahead. The pivot point at $2,841.97 is acting as a key support zone, with buyers stepping in near this level. However, upside momentum remains capped by immediate resistance at $2,878.50, with a bigger hurdle at $2,920.67.

Technically, gold is still in a downward channel, but the 50-day EMA at $2,899.62 could provide support if tested. A break below $2,841.97 may accelerate selling toward $2,806.69 and $2,772.82, while a move above $2,878.50 could trigger a push toward $2,900+.

For now, gold remains bullish above $2,841.97, but traders need a solid close above resistance to confirm a breakout.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is hovering at $31.23, edging higher but struggling to gain real momentum. The pivot point at $31.40 is the key level to watch—silver remains bearish below this mark, with $31.94 acting as the next upside hurdle. The 50-day EMA at $31.87 and the 200-day EMA at $31.63 are closely stacked, reinforcing short-term resistance.

On the downside, immediate support sits at $30.81, followed by a stronger floor at $30.28 if selling pressure picks up. The recent double-bottom breakout level at $31.40 is now resistance, meaning bulls need a decisive push above this mark to regain control.

A break higher could spark a rally toward $32.48, but failure to clear resistance keeps silver vulnerable to further downside.