Gold (XAU) Silver (XAG) Daily Forecast: US Dollar Weakness Drives Safe-Haven Demand

Market Overview

Gold prices hovered around 2,626 on Thursday, reaching an intraday high of 2,629, buoyed by a slightly weaker US dollar. The dollar index edged lower during Asian trading, though it remained near a two-year high, easing pressure on gold priced in other currencies. Despite this, lingering caution over the Federal Reserve’s hawkish monetary stance limited gold’s upside.

Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have further supported gold’s safe-haven appeal, though investor appetite remains constrained by the prospect of higher interest rates.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 93% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain its benchmark rate at 4.25%–4.50% in January, keeping gold under scrutiny as bonds offer better yields.

Silver Trades Lower Amid Rate Concerns

Silver traded at 29.61, dipping slightly during intraday sessions, with its low at 29.56. A strong dollar and Federal Reserve policies have reduced demand for non-yielding assets like silver. The metal’s appeal as a safe haven, however, remains bolstered by geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East.

Silver’s limited upside is attributed to rising US interest rates, which heighten the attractiveness of yield-bearing assets. Market participants are now watching US economic indicators, such as weaker-than-expected durable goods orders (down 1.1%) and falling consumer confidence, for further cues.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold is consolidating near $2,626, with resistance at $2,651. A break above could target $2,679, while failure risks a pullback to $2,608.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,626.76, marking a 0.37% gain as the metal consolidates near the pivot point at $2,629.62. A double top formation is capping upward momentum, signaling potential resistance at this critical level. If gold breaks above the immediate resistance at $2,651.62, it could target $2,679.38 in the near term.

However, failure to sustain above the pivot could prompt a pullback toward immediate support at $2,608.24, with further downside risk to $2,584.66.

The 50-day EMA at $2,621.04 aligns closely with current levels, reinforcing near-term stability, while the 200-day EMA at $2,639.95 highlights a broader consolidation. The outlook remains bearish below $2,629.62, but a break above this level could shift sentiment decisively bullish.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading at $29.61, down 0.7%, as bearish sentiment takes hold following a rejection at the pivot point of $29.78. A downward trendline continues to limit upside potential, with immediate resistance at $30.16 and further resistance at $30.75. Failure to break above these levels could keep silver under pressure.

On the downside, immediate support is positioned at $29.26, with stronger backing at $28.79, which could act as a floor if selling persists.

The 50-day EMA at $29.67 aligns with the current price, offering near-term stability, while the 200-day EMA at $30.35 underscores the broader bearish bias. A breakout above $29.78 is needed to shift momentum toward a bullish outlook.