Gold (XAU) Silver (XAG) Daily Forecast: Will Geopolitical Risks Drive Gold Higher?

Market Overview

Gold prices (XAU/USD) retreated on Wednesday, failing to extend their two-day winning streak as they hovered near $2,915. The decline came amid rising U.S. Treasury yields, which made the non-yielding metal less attractive to investors. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.35%, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive policy stance.

As a result, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened to 105.70, making gold more expensive for foreign buyers and further pressuring its price.

“Gold is facing resistance as higher bond yields and a firmer dollar continue to cap gains,” said Daniel Ghali, a commodities strategist at TD Securities.

Despite the pullback, gold remains supported by escalating trade tensions and geopolitical risks, factors that continue to fuel demand for safe-haven assets.

Silver Holds Near $32 as Market Uncertainty Offsets Dollar Strength

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading at $32.10, after briefly touching an intra-day high of $32.04. Like gold, silver’s rally is being capped by rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, both of which make commodities less appealing.

However, geopolitical tensions and trade disputes are providing some support. China, Canada, and Mexico have introduced retaliatory tariffs in response to new U.S. import duties, adding to global economic uncertainty. Historically, silver benefits from its dual role as a safe-haven asset and an industrial metal, particularly in times of market volatility.

“Silver’s outlook is caught between two opposing forces: a strong dollar limiting gains and economic risks increasing safe-haven demand,” said Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank.

Trade Disputes and Economic Uncertainty Keep Gold in Focus

Despite gold’s dip, escalating trade disputes continue to support demand. The U.S. government recently imposed:

• 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada
• A tariff increase on Chinese goods to 20%

In response, Canada and China introduced their own retaliatory measures, raising concerns about rising costs for businesses and slower economic growth. The uncertainty over whether President Trump will reconsider tariff policies has added another layer of volatility to the markets.

Additionally, a U.S. decision to pause military aid to Ukraine has heightened geopolitical risks, further supporting gold as a safe-haven asset.

Key Economic Data and Federal Reserve Outlook

Market participants are closely watching economic indicators for further clues about Federal Reserve policy. Recent data shows:

• ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.3 in February, down from 50.9 in January, signaling slowing growth.
• Prices Paid Index surged to a three-year high, reflecting higher input costs due to tariffs.

If U.S. economic data weakens, expectations for a Fed rate cut later this year could increase, providing additional support for gold. Nonfarm Payrolls and inflation data due this week will be closely watched, as any signs of a cooling labor market could shift investor sentiment in favor of gold.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold continues to trade within an upward channel, maintaining support above $2,901.79. A break below $2,901.79 may signal weakness, while silver targets $32.48 if support holds.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is holding steady at $2,915.25, showing resilience above its pivot point at $2,901.79. Despite a minor pullback, the metal remains in an upward channel, supported by the 50-day EMA at $2,897.53 and the 200-day EMA at $2,891.08. This suggests a firm short-term bullish structure.

A break above $2,927.98 could open the door for a rally toward $2,955.31, where stronger resistance may emerge. Conversely, a drop below $2,901.79 could shift momentum lower, testing support at $2,878.20, with a further downside risk at $2,859.50.

Traders should watch for volume confirmation near resistance—a breakout above $2,928 signals renewed bullish momentum, while failure to hold $2,901 may trigger selling pressure.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading at $32.10, down 0.02%, but still maintaining its bullish structure above the pivot point at $31.93. The 50-day EMA at $31.71 has crossed above the 200-day EMA at $31.88, signaling a bullish trend continuation. Additionally, a bullish engulfing candle reinforces near-term buying momentum.

If silver holds above $31.93, upside targets include $32.48, followed by $33.20, where stronger resistance could emerge. On the downside, a break below $31.93 may shift momentum lower, with key support at $31.46 and deeper declines toward $30.92.

Traders should watch for sustained buying above $32.48 for confirmation of further gains, while a failure to hold $31.93 could lead to renewed selling pressure.