Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Range-Bound Ahead of U.S. NFP Report

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) struggled to build momentum Friday, holding just above $3,100 as investors weighed renewed selling pressure against persistent geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty.

Despite an initial rebound attempt, the yellow metal remained under pressure as the market absorbed U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs on imports.

Analysts warn that such measures could exacerbate global trade tensions, raising the risk of a slowdown in international commerce and potentially tipping the U.S. economy toward recession.

Even with downside pressure, gold continues to benefit from safe-haven flows. “The broader market is cautious, and gold is finding support from risk-off sentiment,” said a commodities strategist at a major European bank. “Tariff escalation has reignited concerns around economic stability.”

Silver Tracks Lower, but Risk Aversion Offers Support

Silver (XAG/USD) slipped to $31.40, following broader risk aversion across commodities and equities. While silver’s industrial component makes it more sensitive to growth expectations, its safe-haven demand remains supported.

A firmer U.S. dollar ahead of the closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report also weighed on silver’s price. However, analysts expect downside in silver to remain limited, particularly if the NFP data reflects labor market softness or moderates expectations for U.S. growth.

Fed Rate Cut Bets and Yield Decline Anchor Gold

The Federal Reserve’s expected dovish stance continues to underpin gold’s resilience. Traders are pricing in as many as four rate cuts by the end of 2025.

Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield dipped below 4% for the first time in six months—a move that weakened the dollar and increased the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. According to futures data, markets now assign a 64% probability of a rate cut by July.

As investors await the U.S. labor report—forecast to show 135,000 new jobs with a steady 4.1% unemployment rate—gold remains in a holding pattern. But with policy and trade uncertainty in play, the metal’s downside appears limited for now.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold remains range-bound near $3,100, supported by risk-off sentiment and rate cut expectations. A breakout above $3,119 could trigger upside momentum; otherwise, consolidation is likely into the U.S. jobs report.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is holding steady near $3,104 after bouncing sharply from the lower boundary of its rising channel around $3,055. Despite recent volatility, the broader uptrend remains intact as long as prices stay above this key support. The 50 EMA, currently near $3,109, serves as a near-term barrier, while the 200 EMA at $3,048 reinforces the underlying bullish structure.

Price action has respected the midline of the ascending channel, with immediate resistance at $3,119. A sustained push above this level could bring $3,152 back into view. On the downside, a break below $3,085 would suggest growing bearish momentum, potentially targeting $3,054 or lower.

Overall, gold appears to be consolidating after an aggressive pullback and may be positioning for another leg higher, especially if macro uncertainty continues to drive safe-haven demand. Traders should watch for a decisive close above $3,119 to confirm renewed bullish momentum.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is attempting to stabilize near $31.55 after a sharp two-day decline that broke below the ascending trendline and critical support at $31.80. The move came after price slipped below both the 50 EMA at $33.10 and the 200 EMA at $33.35, signaling a bearish shift in momentum.

With the RSI hovering around 37, the market is nearing oversold territory, but there’s still no confirmation of a reversal. The next key support lies at $31.27, followed by a stronger floor at $30.83. On the upside, a recovery above $31.80 could attract renewed interest, though bulls would still need to reclaim $32.37 and $32.95 to regain control.

For now, sentiment remains cautious, and the broader outlook leans bearish unless silver can stage a sustained close back above $32. Stronger buying pressure or macro catalysts would be needed to alter the current downtrend