Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Tariff Risks & Fed Cut Bets Boost Safe-Haven Demand

Market Overview

Gold prices remained elevated on Friday, hovering near all-time highs around $3,220 per ounce, as persistent U.S. dollar weakness and rising expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts continued to buoy investor demand.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) unexpectedly fell 0.1% in March, while headline inflation eased to 2.4% year-over-year, down from 2.8% in February. The data missed consensus forecasts of 2.6%, reinforcing the view that inflation is cooling faster than expected.

The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also declined to 2.8%, giving traders more confidence that the Fed will pivot toward monetary easing.

According to CME FedWatch Tool data, markets are now pricing in three to four interest rate cuts by year-end, significantly increasing gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset amid falling yields.

“The softer inflation data puts the Fed on a clearer path to cutting rates, and that’s fundamentally bullish for gold,” said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive.

Silver Tracks Gold’s Strength Amid Industrial Demand Optimism

Silver followed gold’s upward trajectory, trading around $31.35, with an intraday high of $31.37. The white metal has gained on both safe-haven flows and improved industrial demand prospects.

Easing inflation pressures are also reducing cost burdens for manufacturing, helping to boost sentiment across industrial commodities.

Technical indicators show silver’s bullish momentum remains intact as long as the price holds above $30.50.

U.S.-China Tariffs Reignite Risk-Off Sentiment

Geopolitical tensions resurfaced after President Trump imposed 125% tariffs on Chinese imports, with Beijing responding with 84% retaliatory duties. While the U.S. temporarily paused tariffs for several allies, the aggressive stance toward China rekindled fears of a broader economic slowdown.

Concerns over potential fallout, including disruptions in global supply chains and speculation that China could reduce U.S. Treasury holdings, helped fuel safe-haven flows.

Analysts warn that continued escalation could weigh on global growth, keeping gold and silver supported in the near term.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold and silver remain elevated amid softer inflation and tariff tensions. A breakout above $3,220 and $31.96 may confirm upside; otherwise, expect consolidation below key resistance zones.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is trading at $3,207 after a sharp rally from the $2,970 support area, now testing major resistance at $3,220. This level marks the 100% Fibonacci extension of the recent leg up and may act as a key barrier in the short term.

The metal has cleared its 50 EMA at $3,083 and 200 EMA at $3,008, indicating strong bullish momentum. Immediate support lies at $3,161 (23.6% Fib), followed by $3,124 (38.2% Fib). If bulls manage a clean break above $3,220, the next upside target could be around $3,255.

However, overbought signals are starting to emerge. A pullback from current levels could see price revisiting $3,160–$3,125 for reaccumulation before any further push higher.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is holding around $31.35 after rebounding sharply from the $28.30 low. The metal has broken above the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $31.26 and is now testing resistance at the 61.8% Fib level near $31.96. This area also aligns with the descending trendline and the 50 EMA ($31.38), making it a pivotal zone for the next move.

If bulls clear $31.96, it could trigger momentum toward $32.68 or even $33.47. On the downside, immediate support lies at $30.56 (38.2% Fib), with stronger footing at $29.70.

The trend remains cautiously bullish, but the confluence of technical resistance suggests we could see consolidation or a short-term pullback unless buyers push decisively through $32.