Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Tariff Tensions and Weak Dollar Fuel Safe-Haven Demand

Market Overview

Gold prices surged to a new record above $3,30 per ounce on Monday, fueled by a weaker U.S. dollar and rising concerns over global economic stability. Silver followed closely, trading near $33 as industrial demand held steady.

Investors moved capital into safe-haven assets amid intensifying trade disruptions and softening growth signals.

Dollar Slides, Boosting Bullion Appeal

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell to a three-year low, reducing the cost of dollar-denominated metals for international buyers. “Markets are increasingly pricing in structural risks—ranging from trade disruptions to long-term inflation—while continued central bank accumulation offers additional support,” said Yeap Jun Rong, strategist at IG.

The shift in currency sentiment comes as President Trump’s administration moves forward with broad-based tariff plans.

While exemptions were granted to some countries, the focus remains on China, where trade talks have stagnated. Beijing, in response, warned against bilateral deals that could undermine its position in ongoing negotiations.

Fed Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risk Shape Market Tone

Investors are also watching developments at the Federal Reserve, where speculation around leadership persists. The White House has reportedly revisited discussions about replacing Chair Jerome Powell, a move that would further complicate monetary policy signals at a time when inflation remains uneven and growth momentum fragile.

Meanwhile, geopolitical instability—particularly across Eastern Europe—is adding to the cautious mood in financial markets. Although a temporary ceasefire had been announced, reports of renewed conflict have raised doubts about any meaningful de-escalation in the near term.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold eyes $3,404 as bulls defend key support near $3,368; silver holds above $32.63 with upside capped at $33.11 unless volume confirms a breakout.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around $3,390 after bouncing sharply off channel support near $3,316. The bullish structure remains intact, supported by the 50 EMA at $3,286 and the broader ascending price channel.

With momentum recovering, immediate resistance lies at $3,404 and $3,425. A break above the upper trendline may accelerate gains toward $3,448. On the downside, $3,368 serves as the nearest support, followed by the key $3,346 and $3,316 zones.

So far, buyers remain in control, but price action is approaching a key inflection point. A clean breakout above $3,404 on strong volume could confirm trend continuation, while failure to clear it may prompt short-term consolidation.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading near $32.86, regaining bullish momentum after bouncing off trendline support and reclaiming the 50 EMA at $32.35. The rebound from $32.12 confirms buyers are defending the uptrend, with price now eyeing the $33.11 resistance.

A break above this level could open the path toward $33.50 and potentially $33.91. On the downside, immediate support holds at $32.63, followed by $32.14. The broader trend remains constructive while silver holds above the rising trendline.

Momentum is firming, but the market has repeatedly hesitated near $33.00—traders should watch for a clean breakout. For now, the technical setup favors bulls, but follow-through volume will be key to sustaining gains.