Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Trade Tensions and Tariffs Stir Safe-Haven Demand

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) climbed sharply during early Monday trading, rebounding from a three-week low near $2,972 to an intraday high of $3,055. The rebound was fueled by risk-off sentiment, mounting recession fears, and heightened expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Despite the bounce, gains remain capped as investors remain cautious amid volatile macroeconomic conditions.

Escalating Trade Tensions Trigger Market Jitters

The global economic outlook darkened following the latest round of U.S. tariffs—averaging 10% across all imports—with Chinese goods hit hardest at 54%. China responded with 34% tariffs on U.S. products.

“These tariffs are not coming off anytime soon,” said U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. Investors rushed to raise cash, with some liquidating gold positions to offset equity losses, temporarily weighing on bullion prices.

Central Banks Continue Strategic Gold Accumulation

While short-term sentiment remains mixed, long-term fundamentals remain supportive. The People’s Bank of China increased its gold holdings for a fifth consecutive month. According to the World Gold Council, global central banks added 39 tonnes of gold in February, highlighting a continued shift away from dollar-denominated assets.

Outlook: Cautious Optimism with Technical Resistance Ahead

While gold’s rally reflects safe-haven demand, analysts warn of limited upside unless prices break convincingly above the $3,080 resistance level. Technical momentum remains fragile as traders weigh profit-taking and global policy uncertainty.

Like gold, silver remains vulnerable to broader market swings and a potential shift in Fed policy tone.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold remains range-bound below the 50 EMA, with key support at $2,972 and resistance at $3,087. Silver’s recovery lacks momentum, facing resistance at $30.55 and risk of a pullback.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold has broken below its rising channel, retracing toward $2,972 before stabilizing near the 200-period EMA at $2,991. Price is currently trading around $3,023, positioned between the 200 EMA support and the 50 EMA resistance at $3,075. The loss of channel structure shifts the short-term outlook to neutral-to-bearish.

A sustained move below $2,972 would expose the next key support at $2,926. On the upside, resistance between $3,075 and $3,087 must be reclaimed to regain upward momentum. The Relative Strength Index, now at 42, indicates moderate downside pressure but not yet oversold.

As long as gold remains capped below the 50 EMA, near-term rallies are likely to be constrained by technical resistance rather than driven by trend continuation.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver staged a modest recovery after touching a low of $28.30, but the broader structure remains under pressure. Price is now hovering around $29.80 after briefly testing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $29.70.

The next key pivot is at $30.55 (38.2% Fib), followed by the 50 EMA at $32.57. Until bulls reclaim $31.26—the 50% retracement—the recovery looks fragile. The descending trendline and 200 EMA at $32.76 serve as critical barriers.

On the downside, failure to hold above $29.70 could re-expose the $28.30 low. Technically, the bounce is corrective for now, not yet trend-defining.