Gold’s Inflection Point: Anticipation Grows as Market Braces for Next Move

Gold Forecast Video for 14.06.23 by Bruce Powers

The pressure is building as gold further consolidates. For seven days gold has been stuck between support of the 100-Day EMA and resistance of the uptrend line. Something must give out and it could happen soon. Recent price action shows downward pressure remaining for gold as it is below the uptrend line and has been unable to rally back above it. You can see how the market has been recognizing the 100-Day line and trendline recently as they are tested almost daily as support or resistance, respectively.

Further Weakness Likely on Drop Below 100-Day Moving Average

A decline below the 100-Day line and subsequent close below it indicates weakening. It is currently at 1,939. Weakness is then confirmed with a drop below the trend low of 1,932. The first defined lower target would then be the completion of a small falling ABCD pattern at 1,925. Further down is the 61.8% retracement at 1,912. That potential support area is strengthened by the fact that the 127.2% extension of the ABCD leg also completes around 1,912. Specifically, it completes around 1,913.

Second Test of 200-Day EMA Possible

Gold moved back above its 100-Day EMA in early-November last year and tested the line as support once with two bottoms in February/March. During that test it went briefly below the 100-Day line, closing below it for four days. Support was then seen at the 200-Day EMA. Something similar could happen now. If the lower gold targets noted above are exceeded to the downside, the 200-Day line is the likely area where support would be seen.

Weakness Should be Temporary

Once the current correction in gold is anticipated to continue to evolve its uptrend. If it falls to the 200-Day line before that happens, the angle of ascent will lower but the uptrend should remain intact. Gold broke out to a new record high of 2,082 in early-May and was quickly met with resistance that turned price back down. That high was the top of the current correction. Another attempt at new highs if not a sustained breakout is likely given the long-term bullish basing pattern that has been forming for more than 10 years. Current lows and lower prices are likely to be the best prices for gold for some time. That fact is not lost to many investors and traders who are watching this retracement carefully.

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