Harris vs Trump: How Will the US Election Result Impact Bitcoin?

The 2024 United States presidential election will occur on Nov. 5, 2025. Bitcoin (BTC) investors are watching closely to see how Vice President Kamala Harris’s and Former US President Donald Trump’s differing policy stances might influence market trends.

Here’s how each candidate’s approach to crypto, alongside the ongoing rate cut cycle, could affect the digital asset market.

Donald Trump is Pro-Crypto, But Only To Grab Votes

Donald Trump has positioned himself as a pro-crypto candidate. He has pledged to remove the US Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler, a key regulator enforcing crypto oversight, and suggested he would support Bitcoin mining through subsidies.

His stance represents a shift from his earlier views. For instance, in 2019, he called Bitcoin a “scam.”

TRUMP: Bitcoin, it just seems like a scam. I don’t like it. I want the dollar to be the currency of the world. pic.twitter.com/CXjALsJmXx

— August Takala (@RudyTakala) June 7, 2021

But now, he has embraced it and is further accepting crypto donations, launching NFTs, and launching ideas for a decentralized finance platform.

However, his support appears driven by campaign needs more than consistent conviction, raising questions about how enduring his pro-crypto stance might be if he wins.

Still, Trump’s rhetoric has captured attention in the crypto world, promising policies that would theoretically boost digital assets. Given Bitcoin’s high-risk, high-reward nature, Trump’s approach could increase Bitcoin prices in November and beyond.

Kamala Harris’s Position: Likely Continuation of the Biden Approach, but Not Anti-Bitcoin

Kamala Harris, by contrast, appears more aligned with the cautious regulatory stance of the Biden administration.

She hasn’t explicitly targeted crypto. However, her association with the Biden administration suggests she may continue Gensler’s “regulation by enforcement” strategy, focusing on clearer rules for crypto businesses without granting full leeway.

It’s worth noting that while Democrats have been tough on crypto companies, their actions have rarely targeted Bitcoin itself. The Biden administration’s stance has often focused on protecting investors from fraudulent companies rather than taking specific action against Bitcoin.

As a California native with strong connections to Silicon Valley, she may have a pragmatic approach, recognizing the value of technology without promoting lax regulation.

She even took donations in XRP from Ripple Labs, one of the main victims of the SEC’s regulatory overreach.

Shared Tailwinds for Stocks and Bitcoin: Election Outcomes and the Rate Cut Cycle

While the 2024 election will likely impact short-term price reactions, macroeconomic trends, particularly the ongoing rate-cut cycle, could benefit the overall market.

Bitcoin and stocks are classified as “risk assets,” meaning they typically benefit from lower interest rates. When rates are cut, borrowing costs decrease, and investors often move toward higher-yield, riskier assets like equities and crypto.

This is why the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy could be a decisive factor for Bitcoin and stocks, potentially sparking gains for both asset classes, regardless of which party takes power. In September, the central bank reduced interest rates by 50 basis points, with another 25 bps cut likely in November.

Historical data also shows that the S&P 500 generally performs positively after elections.

According to Morgan Stanley, there have been 23 elections since the S&P 500 Index began (not counting Joe Biden’s term). In these election years, 19 of the 23 years (83%) provided positive performance.

When a Democrat was in office and a new Democrat was elected, the total return for the year averaged 11.0%. When a Democrat was in office and a Republican was elected, the total return for the year averaged 12.9%

Bitcoin, like stocks, could experience a similar rally as it aligns with broader economic sentiment.

Potential Market Impact of a Trump or Harris Victory

Most analysts believe that Trump’s victory would create more immediate optimism for crypto, as seen in his promises to remove regulatory obstacles. That includes Standard Chartered, which sees the BTC price hitting $125,000 upon a Trump win.

Source: XExecutives at Bitwise predict that a Trump victory could push Bitcoin’s price to as high as $92,000, while analysts at Deribit foresee it reaching $80,000 by the end of November.

Meanwhile, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink maintains a bullish outlook, suggesting that Bitcoin is set to continue its upward trajectory regardless of the election outcome.

Thus, while partisan outcomes may influence immediate sentiment, the broader economic tailwinds could benefit Bitcoin and the stock market.

The Bigger Picture: Regulatory Appointments and Policy Control

Beyond market reactions, the election’s impact on crypto will likely hinge on appointments to key regulatory positions.

Trump’s promises to fire Gensler and appoint a more crypto-friendly SEC chair could foster innovation, likely benefiting crypto firms and digital assets like Bitcoin. In contrast, if Harris wins, her administration might keep Gensler or appoint a similarly cautious regulator, resulting in a more measured but stable approach to crypto regulation.

Whether driven by political promises or broader economic trends, Bitcoin may find favorable conditions for growth post-election. Both candidates likely impact sentiment, but the Federal Reserve’s policies provide the most sustained boost.