Japanese Yen and Aussie Dollar Forecasts: US Tariffs and China Exports in Focus

Trade Shocks and Japan Output Trends Could Rattle USD/JPY Bulls

Tariff twists threaten to roil USD/JPY—here’s what traders should watch. On Monday, April 14, tariff developments will influence early USD/JPY moves. The US government announced tariff exemptions for select Chinese electronics, potentially reducing safe-haven demand for the Japanese Yen. But, subsequent updates suggest a shift to national security tariffs, hinting at fresh levies.

The risk of new tariffs on Chinese goods may revive Yen demand, overshadowing Japan’s economic data. Preliminary figures showed Japan’s industrial production rose 0.3% month-on-month in February, down sharply from January’s 2.2% gain.

A downward revision could temper bets on an H1 2025 Bank of Japan rate hike, especially if US tariffs hurt Japanese exports. Conversely, stronger data may support a hawkish BoJ stance.

USD/JPY: Key scenarios to watch

The USD/JPY pair may fall on safe-haven flows into the Yen, while improved risk sentiment could drive the pair higher.

• Bullish Yen Scenario: An escalation in the US-China trade war, risk-off sentiment, or hawkish BoJ rhetoric could pull the USD/JPY pair toward the 140.309 support level.
• Bearish Yen Scenario: Trade de-escalation, upbeat risk sentiment, or dovish BoJ signals may lift USD/JPY through 145.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook: Spotlight on Fed and Inflation

Later in the US session, consumer inflation expectations will come into focus. Economists expect consumer inflation expectations to rise from 3.1% in February to 3.3% in March. A hotter-than-expected reading could dampen hopes for a June Fed rate cut. Conversely, a softer reading may revive dovish bets and weigh on the US dollar.

Beyond the numbers, tariff headlines and Fed commentary will be critical. A flare-up in trade tensions could pressure the dollar, while hawkish remarks from FOMC members may offer support.

Potential USD/JPY Moves:

• Bullish US dollar Scenario: Hot inflation data, easing trade tensions, or hawkish Fed rhetoric could push the USD/JPY pair toward 145.
• Bearish US dollar Scenario: Weak inflation expectations, dovish Fed signals, or escalating trade tensions may send the pair toward the 140.309 support level.

Explore expert forecasts and trade setups for USD/JPY in our latest market analysis here.

AUD/USD Outlook: China Trade and Tariff Moves in Focus

Shifting focus to the Aussie, economic data from China, trade developments, and policy signals from Beijing will dictate AUD/USD trends.

Rising trade tensions could weaken US dollar assets, lifting the AUD/USD, mirroring last week’s recovery from $0.59132. However, China’s trade data could be key. Economists forecast exports to increase 4.4% year-on-year in March, following a 2.3% rise in February.

Higher exports could signal an improving demand environment. But traders will watch for signs of tariff front-running, shipments rushed ahead of tariff hikes, limiting the impact on risk sentiment. A softer-than-expected reading may fuel fears that US tariffs are already curbing demand.

AUD/USD: What Could Move the Market

• Bullish Aussie dollar Scenario: Heightened US-China trade tensions or hawkish RBA commentary may send the AUD/USD pair toward the $0.63623 resistance level.
• Bearish Aussie dollar Scenario: De-escalation in trade friction may boost demand for US dollar assets, potentially pulling the AUD/USD pair below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and toward $0.62.

For a comprehensive analysis of AUD/USD trends and trade data insights, visit our detailed reports here.

Aussie Dollar Daily Outlook: US Inflation Takes the Stage

In the US session, higher inflation expectations signal a more hawkish Fed stance, potentially pushing the AUD/USD pair below the 50-day EMA toward $0.62. Conversely, softer data may boost Fed rate cut bets, driving the pair toward the $0.63623 resistance level.

Key Market Drivers to Watch Today:

• USD/JPY: US-Japan tariff updates and BoJ forward guidance.
• USD/JPY and AUD/USD: US inflation data and Fed commentary.
• AUD/USD: China trade figures, Beijing stimulus, and US-China tariff headlines.

Do not miss today’s trade setups in our full USD/JPY and AUD/USD reports.