Micro Futures Data Indicates a Possible Imminent Bitcoin Decline

On November 13, over 202,000 contracts valued at $1.8 billion were traded, highlighting strong demand in regulated markets. Open interest (OI) remains high at 46,110 contracts, with daily volume at 34,140, indicating confidence in Bitcoin‘s trajectory.

Chasing the Rally Phase

At the same time, according to the Commitments of Traders Report (COT), published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the number of non-reportable positions increased by 1,263, meaning a spike in small retail investors massively betting on Bitcoin.

Thus, the situation aligns with the term “Chasing the Rally,” often ending with a sharp price drop as large players secure profits at the expense of smaller ones. The data coincides with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index peaking at 90, the highest level since March, indicating extreme bullish sentiment. However, such aggressive enthusiasm frequently precedes corrections. Analysts at CryptoQuant predict a possible pullback to $71,000-$77,000 before the market resumes its upward trajectory.

Institutions are hedging risks with December Put options at $80,000, while optimistic Call options target $100,000 to $120,000. The divergence between fast and slow-moving averages signals potential consolidation, yet buyer pressure remains a positive growth indicator.

High Sensitivity to News

After reaching a new all-time high of $93,490, Bitcoin has shown a significant correction, falling to $90,084. Santiment analysts attribute this drop to an unusually high level of optimism on social media, where most users actively predicted reaching the $100,000 mark this week.

Researchers note a characteristic pattern: a surge in positive sentiment on key social platforms, including Telegram, X, Reddit, and Bitcoin Talk, often signals the achievement of a local maximum in the current growth cycle. It was this euphoria that led to massive profit-taking by major players, which caused the rate to fall by more than $3,000.

Market Euphoria May Cause Massive Correction

The Bitcoin market is in a state of euphoria, but faces the risk of corrections and liquidation of positions, as the BTC price is close to $90,000. According to analysis from crypto trading firm QCP Capital, high funding levels and underlying yields predict possible leveraged liquidations in the future. As the price of Bitcoin approaches $90,000, there is a sense of euphoria or extreme optimism in the market, warning of a possible price correction.

OI rates on perpetual contracts, or futures with no expiration date, have risen to 0.056%, the highest since March, according to Coinglass. This suggests that bullish long positions are likely becoming overcrowded, and a small price correction could cause overextended bulls to exit their positions, closing long positions and unwittingly adding to the downward pressure on the market.

Leveraged liquidations have been common in previous bull markets, often resulting in sharp price drops of double-digit percentages. The high level of funding means that perpetual futures are trading at a premium to spot prices. Standard futures contracts are also trading at an annual premium (basis) of over 15% on all exchanges, including the CME. Historically, such sharp swings in the so-called basis yield have not lasted for long, according to QCP Capital.