Nasdaq 100: Apple’s Tariff Win Fuels Rally—Can It Sustain Market Momentum?

Apple Pops on Tariff Exemptions, But Traders Remain Guarded

Apple shares climbed over 2% on Monday, reclaiming the $3 trillion market cap threshold after the White House announced tariff exemptions for key tech imports. The relief follows a turbulent few weeks marked by steep losses triggered by proposed duties on Chinese goods, which threatened to upend Apple’s China-centric supply chain.

How Much Relief Did Apple Really Get?

The administration’s decision to exempt phones, computers, and semiconductors from fresh tariffs slashed Apple’s projected tariff burden from $44 billion to $7 billion, according to Morgan Stanley.

Additionally, duties on imports from non-Chinese countries were trimmed to 10%, while tariffs as high as 145% remain on goods sourced directly from China. The policy shift provides temporary breathing room for Apple, but the administration has warned the exemptions may not last, leaving markets wary.

What’s Behind the Limited Market Reaction?

Despite Monday’s gains, Apple is still down roughly 9% in April after an 8% drop in March. The stock’s Q1 performance marked its worst quarterly return in nearly two years.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s comments about upcoming tech-specific tariffs have kept investors cautious, while President Trump’s ambiguous remarks reinforced the perception that the current reprieve could be fleeting.

What Are Analysts Saying?

Analysts are split. Needham’s Laura Martin noted the logistical hurdles and cost implications of moving production out of Asia, suggesting any shift would take years and drive up product prices.

Melius Research’s Ben Reitzes sees margin relief but warned that Apple is not “out of the woods” just yet.

Citi maintained a “buy” rating but cut its price target from $275 to $245, citing broader macro pressures and trimming iPhone shipment estimates by 1%.

Can Apple Sustain This Rally?

Short-term, Apple may see a revenue bump from pre-tariff buying in March and April. But traders are watching closely for a possible sales slowdown in the months ahead.

Future tariff decisions, global demand trends, and Apple’s execution on AI and U.S.-based investments will be critical in determining whether this rally holds.

Market Outlook

For now, the tariff reprieve has eased immediate concerns, but policy volatility and macroeconomic headwinds still loom. Traders should watch for signals from the Trump administration on tech-specific tariffs, upcoming iPhone demand data, and any new updates on Apple’s U.S. investment strategy. Until clarity improves, volatility around Apple is likely to persist.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.