Today’s market direction for the S&P 500 could hinge significantly on the newly released economic data, particularly the producer price index.
The U.S. stock market shows mixed signals in Friday’s pre-market session. The S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq-100 Index are trending upwards, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average experiences a slight decline. This comes as investors anticipate the upcoming U.S. producer inflation figures (PPI), hoping to extend the broader market’s recent strong performance.
At 12:00 GMT, Dow futures are trading 38814.00, down 44.00 or -0.11%. S&P 500 Index futures are at 5055.75, up 9.25 or +0.18% and Nasdaq futures are trading 18013.50, up 100.75 or +0.56%.
The S&P 500 achieved a new record high on Thursday, alongside gains in the Dow and Nasdaq. Over the week, the S&P 500 has seen a modest rise of less than 0.1%. The Dow is slightly ahead with a 0.3% increase, despite experiencing its largest single-day loss since March 2023 earlier this week. The Nasdaq, however, has declined by 0.53%.
Several sectors, including Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Financials, showed positive changes, while Technology and Real Estate experienced significant gains.
Economic data indicates mixed signals, with the producer price index and housing starts reports due. Recent consumer price index data and retail sales decline suggest potential weaknesses in consumer spending.
The alignment of market expectations with Federal Reserve policies suggests reduced market volatility. Positive economic data and a moderating inflation outlook could support steady growth in equities. BlackRock’s Rick Rieder forecasts a potential 10-15% return in equities this year, underpinned by a stabilizing economy and resilient consumer spending.
E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are edging higher on Friday, puttng them within striking distance of the all-time high at 5066.50. A trade through this level will signal a resumption of the uptrend. It will also negate Monday’s dramatic closing price reversal top chart pattern.
On the downside, the first support is the minor bottom at 4936.50. A trade through this level will change the minor trend to down, while shifting momentum. This could trigger a further decline into the uptrending 50-day moving average at 4850.05.
Concerns over valuation appear to have been lifted with Tuesday’s steep sell-off.
James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.