NASDAQ Index, SP500, Dow Jones Forecasts – Tech Sector Signaling Top after Volatile Week

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Ending Volatile Week with Reversal Top

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite retreated on Friday, with the S&P losing about 0.4% and the Nasdaq slipping 0.9%. The Dow Jones, however, edged up by 0.1%, despite the broader market’s downturn. Over the week, the S&P and Nasdaq saw respective declines of 0.1% and 0.9%, while the Dow decreased by 0.7%.

Technology Sector Impact

Technology stocks experienced mixed fortunes. Nvidia, a major AI player, saw its shares drop more than 5% on Friday, pausing a significant rally, but still ended the week up 6%. Apple rose over 1%, potentially breaking its seven-day losing streak, yet faced a 4% weekly decline. IBM and Cisco were among the top gainers in the Dow, while Salesforce and Apple recorded substantial drops, highlighting the tech sector’s varied performance.

Jobs Report and Economic Indicators

February’s jobs data presented a complex economic picture. The addition of 275,000 jobs surpassed expectations, hinting at a strong economy. However, an unexpected increase in unemployment to 3.9% and softer wage growth could signal easing inflation, potentially impacting the Federal Reserve’s rate decisions.

Notable Stock Movements

Other significant stock movements included Marvell Technology’s 10% drop due to weak earnings guidance. Costco also declined 7% after reporting second-quarter revenues that fell short of expectations.

Short-Term Market Forecast: Cautiously Bullish but Vulnerable

Considering the mixed technology sector performance, the robust jobs report, and individual stock movements, the market outlook remains cautiously bullish. The potential for short-term fluctuations persists, but the underlying economic data suggest a trend towards growth in the near term.

S&P 500 Index

E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading lower late Friday after hitting an all-time high earlier in the session. A lower close today will produce a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

The chart pattern won’t change the main trend to down, but if confirmed, it could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.

The best downside target is the 50-day moving average at 5011.50.

Nasdaq-100 Index

After posting a record high shortly after the opening on Friday, the E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index is trading lower late in the session.

A close below Thursday’s close at 18566.50 will form a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. If confirmed on Monday, we could see a 2 to 3 day sell-off with the main target the 50-day moving average at 17775.50.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The E-mini Dow Jones futures contract is bucking the trend on Friday and rebounding for a third session. The market is also hovering just above the 50-day moving average at 38844. after trading well above it since Mid-November. A trade through the 50-day MA will shift momentum to the downside and perhaps fuel a steep decline over the near-term.