Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Continues to Drift Ahead of Holiday

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

Natural gas markets have gone back and forth during the course of the early hours on Wednesday, and now I think at this point we’re just simply killing time, and that does make a certain amount of sense because we have the Independence Day holiday on Thursday in the United States, so things will be shut down. But in fact, most traders are probably not even at work today. After that, on Friday, we have the jobs report that has a lot to say about potential energy demand, which obviously has a major influence here as well.

So, with all of that being said, I do believe that natural gas markets are going to continue to rely on seasonality. If we break down below the $2.30 level, I expect to see this market continue down toward the $2 level. I am long of this market and an ETF closer to about $2.05, and I’ve already made half profit.

This is not the time of year that is typically good for natural gas, but it does make for a nice investment if you are willing to sit on it for a few months. That’s why I don’t use leverage, because natural gas is so erratic. As a retail trader, you have to be able to keep track of weather patterns in the northeastern part of the United Statest, the transmission flows on transmission lines in the United States, the weather in the Gulf of Mexico because it can shut down production, geopolitics, electricity demand and a whole host of other things.

This is not a market really suitable for retail traders. That being said, I know a lot of people like trading it for whatever reason, and therefore I always make sure that the people that listen to me know that it’s all about taking some of that extra leverage out of the position and becoming a longer term swing trader.

It’s not a scalpers market. It’s not a short term traders market. With that being said, I do think that we are more likely than not going to see a continuation of this pullback, but I do think somewhere closer to $2, you have the ability to really start building up a position maybe for fall when demand starts to pick back up.

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