Natural Gas and Oil Analysis: OPEC+ Deliberations Tighten Supply, WTI at $78.50

By:

Arslan Ali

Updated: Feb 28, 2024, 11:56 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

Fed's cautious rate stance and U.S. crude inventory surge hint at uncertain oil market dynamics.
OPEC+ deliberations on extending output cuts could significantly tighten global oil supply.
Russia's gasoline export ban underscores geopolitical influences on natural gas and oil markets.

In this article:

Natural Gas

+0.95%

WTI Oil

-3.39%

Brent Oil

-3.13%

Oil and Gas Dynamics: Rate Cuts, Inventories, and OPEC+ Strategy Impact Markets

Oil prices experienced a slight movement in Asia on Wednesday due to concerns over a possible delay in the U.S. interest rate cut and an increase in U.S. crude inventories. This slowdown in uptrend came despite the potential for extended output cuts by OPEC+.

Federal Reserve officials have indicated a cautious stance towards cutting rates, emphasizing the need to control inflation, which could impact economic expectations for lower rates.

Moreover, a significant increase in U.S. crude stocks was reported, alongside developments towards a ceasefire in Gaza. If OPEC+ extends its output cuts, it could further tighten the oil market.

Additionally, Russia announced a six-month ban on gasoline exports to meet domestic demand and facilitate refinery maintenance, potentially influencing global oil and natural gas market dynamics.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas Price Chart

Natural Gas (NG) prices slightly receded, marking a -0.16% change, landing at $1.8300 in today’s session. The 4-hour chart delineates a pivot point at $1.7851, suggesting a bullish sentiment above this level. Key resistance points are established at $1.8661, $1.9291, and $1.9906, potentially capping upward movements.

On the flip side, immediate support is identified at $1.7257, with further floors at $1.6773 and $1.6117, which could act as buffers in case of a pullback.

The 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages, positioned at $1.7705 and $2.0127 respectively, indicate a bullish outlook if prices remain above the pivot, hinting at an upward trajectory for Natural Gas.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

USOIL marked a minor increase today, registering at $78.53, showing a 0.09% uptick in the early trading hours. Observing the 4-hour chart, the pivot point for US Oil is identified at $78.88, suggesting a cautious market sentiment. Resistance levels are anticipated at $79.55, $80.36, and $81.06, posing potential barriers to upward movement.

Conversely, support levels are clearly defined at $77.48, $76.00, and $74.95, which may offer buying opportunities should prices dip. The 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages, standing at $77.44 and $76.01 respectively, underscore the current market stability.

However, the bearish sentiment below the $78.88 triple top pattern warrants close monitoring, suggesting a strategic approach for potential shifts in trend.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

UKOIL Price Chart

UK OIL modestly advanced today, inching up to $82.33, a 0.07% increase, reflecting cautious optimism in the market. Analyzing the 4-hour chart, the pivotal benchmark is set at $82.07. Breaking past this point could signal further bullish momentum, with resistance levels awaiting at $83.04, $83.86, and $84.88.

Alternatively, should the asset retract, support is firmly established at $81.01, descending to $80.00 and $78.77, indicating potential areas of accumulation. The 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages, at $82.27 and $81.05 respectively, reinforce the asset’s upward trajectory.

A sustained move above $82.07 would suggest a continuation of the bullish trend, whereas a fall below this pivot could pivot market sentiment towards caution.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.