Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Bearish Pressure Builds with OPEC+ Output Hike and Trade Risks

Market Overview

WTI crude oil futures slipped to nearly $66 per barrel on Friday, extending a 6% decline from the prior session and heading for a weekly loss of nearly 4%. The drop follows an unexpected supply increase by OPEC+, as eight member nations committed to boosting output by 411,000 barrels per day—almost triple market expectations.

This supply surge coincides with heightened geopolitical tensions and fresh global trade concerns, particularly surrounding rising tariff risks.

Though energy imports remain untouched, investors are pricing in the potential for slower global growth and weaker fuel demand, adding pressure to both oil and natural gas markets.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas futures are holding steady near $4.12 after a strong bounce off the $3.83 support zone. The price has reclaimed both the 50 EMA at $4.05 and 200 EMA at $4.03, reinforcing near-term bullish momentum.

A potential breakout from a symmetrical triangle pattern is developing, with price action now coiling just below the $4.23 resistance. A decisive move above that level could expose $4.38 as the next upside target.

However, failure to hold above the ascending trendline could trigger a retest of the $4.00 zone and, ultimately, $3.83. The structure remains constructive as long as price trades above the rising support. RSI is neutral around 54, suggesting there’s room for either side to take control.

Overall, the outlook leans bullish, but a breakout confirmation is still needed to validate the next leg higher. Traders should watch for volume expansion above $4.23 to confirm follow-through.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil is holding just above $66.00 after a sharp breakdown from its rising channel, snapping below both the 50 EMA ($69.05) and 200 EMA ($69.01). The selloff started near $72.50 and accelerated once price breached the $68.57 support, with momentum confirming the bearish bias.

Price is now testing a fragile floor around $66.00. Below that, the next key level to watch is $65.26, followed by $64.32. Any attempt at recovery faces immediate resistance near $67.47, and it’s unlikely we see meaningful upside unless crude reclaims $68.57.

The technical landscape remains vulnerable, especially with RSI trending low and no bullish divergence in sight. Until macro drivers shift or buyers step in with volume, downside risk stays elevated. This is a wait-and-watch zone—not a buying opportunity just yet.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is stabilizing near $69.50 after a dramatic sell-off from last week’s peak at $73.37. The move erased over 5% of recent gains and dragged price well below the 50 EMA ($72.45) and 200 EMA ($72.48). The sharp decline sliced through multiple Fibonacci retracement levels, with price now hovering near the 0% level at $69.28. This suggests a full retracement of the latest bullish leg.

Immediate resistance is seen at $70.25 (23.6% Fib), while further upside may be capped around $70.84 and $71.32 unless buyers step in decisively. The technical picture remains fragile, with bearish momentum prevailing. Without a close above $70.25, Brent may continue to drift lower toward $68.59 and $67.84.

Traders should watch for signs of a reversal, but until a breakout above resistance materializes, the downside bias is firmly in place.