Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Crude Eyes $64 as Supply Fears Battle Trade Hopes

Market Overview

Oil prices ticked higher on Friday, supported by optimism around U.S.–China trade talks and signs the Federal Reserve may pivot on interest rates. However, crude is still set for a weekly loss due to oversupply fears from OPEC+ and uncertainty about global demand.

The strong U.S. dollar has also capped gains. China’s potential tariff exemptions on U.S. goods signal de-escalation, while geopolitical developments—like progress in U.S.-Russia Ukraine talks and renewed Iran nuclear negotiations—could further affect global oil supply dynamics.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas is trading near $2.934 and remains locked in a downward-sloping channel, with price capped beneath the $2.975 resistance level. Despite a modest bounce, the broader trend is still bearish, as both the 50 EMA ($3.034) and 200 EMA ($3.387) sit well above the current range and continue to slope downward.

Price is hovering near the upper boundary of the channel, which may serve as resistance again unless broken with conviction.

If NG breaks above $2.975 with strong volume, a quick push to $3.077 or $3.155 could follow. On the downside, failure to hold above $2.900 may send price back toward $2.870 or even $2.796.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude (USOIL) is trading around $63.24, grinding sideways just above a rising trendline and right below a key convergence zone. The pivot is at $62.79, with immediate resistance at $63.37 (200 EMA), followed by the next ceiling at $64.83. On the downside, watch $61.53 as the first key support, then $60.23.

Technically, this is a squeeze setup. The 50 EMA is at $62.80, rising gently and providing dynamic support. The 200 EMA at $63.37 is flattening out, acting as short-term pressure. Momentum is building, but it’s not yet decisive.

If we get a break and close above $63.37 with volume, bulls could aim for $64.83. But if the trendline gives way, prices could revisit $61.53. This is one of those “wait-for-confirmation” moments—no need to rush the trade. Let the chart show its hand.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude (UKOIL) is hovering around $66.06 after a modest rebound, but it’s bumping into heavy resistance at $66.18. That level coincides with both the 50 EMA ($66.17) and 200 EMA ($66.99), making this a tough ceiling to clear.

The price is also being squeezed by descending and ascending trendlines, hinting that a breakout—or breakdown—is coming soon. Right now, the chart leans bearish.

If Brent gets rejected here and slides below $65.00, we could see a move toward $63.73 or even $61.95. Bulls need to reclaim $66.99 to shift momentum in their favor.