Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Market on Edge as Tariff Concerns Weigh on Demand

Market Overview

Oil prices slipped as rising U.S. crude stockpiles and economic uncertainty weighed on sentiment, interrupting a three-day rally. Brent crude climbed 3.6%, while WTI gained 3.7%, but a 9.4-million-barrel increase in U.S. inventories pressured prices.

Meanwhile, refining margins improved, particularly in Asia and Europe, supporting demand. The EIA raised its U.S. crude output forecast to 13.59 million barrels per day for 2025.

Broader geopolitical tensions and tariff concerns continue to influence market sentiment, with traders closely watching economic data for clues on demand trends. Strong refinery margins, however, have helped limit losses in the energy sector.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) is holding steady at $3.52, showing resilience above its $3.48 pivot point. The price remains within an upward channel, signaling continued bullish momentum as long as it stays above $3.48. Immediate resistance is seen at $3.58, with a break above this level paving the way for a potential test of $3.70.

On the downside, support sits at $3.35, followed by a deeper floor at $3.25, which could act as a safety net if selling pressure intensifies.

The 50-day EMA at $3.43 and the 200-day EMA at $3.36 reinforce near-term stability. A bullish breakout above $3.58 could fuel a rally, but a drop below $3.48 may trigger sharper declines.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

Crude oil (USOIL) is struggling to gain momentum, trading at $72.95, as a downward trendline continues to cap upside moves. The pivot point at $76.68 serves as a key level—remaining below it keeps the bias bearish.

Immediate resistance sits at $78.13, and breaking above this level could shift sentiment toward $79.41, strengthening bullish momentum.

On the downside, support is at $75.45, with a deeper safety net at $74.08. The 50-day EMA at $75.92 and 200-day EMA at $76.33 indicate that the market remains under pressure. A move above $76.68 could trigger a bullish shift, while rejection at resistance may extend losses.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude (UKOIL) is holding steady at $76.66, edging up 0.04%, as technical indicators suggest a potential shift in momentum. The pivot point at $76.68 is a key level—staying above it could reinforce bullish sentiment, with immediate resistance at $78.13 and a breakout potentially pushing prices toward $79.41.

On the downside, support stands at $75.45, with a deeper cushion at $74.08. The 50-day EMA at $75.92 and 200-day EMA at $76.33 are now supporting the price, indicating a potential trend reversal. A move above $76.68 could sustain the bullish bias, while failure to hold this level may trigger renewed selling.