Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: OPEC+ Supply Hike Fuels Bearish Oil Outlook

Market Overview

Crude prices tumbled over 3% on Monday, extending last week’s steep sell-off as mounting geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty weighed on energy demand expectations. Brent crude fell 10.9% and WTI dropped 10.6% last week, driven by fears of recession amid intensifying global trade disputes.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ announced a sharper-than-expected production increase, planning to add 411,000 barrels per day in May—up from 135,000—signaling a pivot in supply policy.

With inflation concerns mounting and central banks wary of growth headwinds, the combination of softening demand and rising supply is exerting sustained downward pressure on both oil and natural gas prices.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas futures slipped to $3.75 today, closing below the 50-day EMA ($3.84) for the first time since late January—a sign that momentum is fading. The chart shows a clean descending triangle forming, with lower highs pressing against flat support around $3.75.

A breakdown below this level could trigger a move toward $3.43, followed by $3.13. The 200-day EMA sits at $3.23, offering a long-term cushion. Resistance looms near $4.24 and a descending trendline from the March high.

The RSI is hovering just above 40, suggesting bearish pressure is mounting but not yet oversold. Unless bulls reclaim the $3.84 zone soon, bears may drive prices lower, especially if volume picks up on downside breaks.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

After forming a textbook flat continuation pattern near $72, WTI crude oil broke sharply lower, confirming a bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart. Price plunged to $60.15, slicing through key support levels with little hesitation.

The pivot point sits at $61.13. Immediate resistance is now at $63.34, followed by $65.32. Support lies at $58.45, with the next floor around $56.57.

The 50-day EMA at $69.05 and 200-day EMA at $72.06 are well above current levels, reinforcing the bearish bias. Momentum remains weak, and with no strong reversal signal yet, further downside pressure can’t be ruled out.

Unless bulls reclaim the $65–$66 zone soon, oil looks vulnerable to a continued grind toward the $54–$56 range.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Crude just broke hard—down 3.4% to $63.71—confirming a sharp bearish continuation after stalling in a textbook flat pattern near $75.50. The recent sell-off sliced clean through the $68.59 support, triggering a bearish engulfing pattern that erased two weeks of gains in just 48 hours.

The pivot sits at $64.35, now a resistance zone. Below that, immediate support lies at $61.77, followed by $59.91. Technically, Brent has dropped below both the 50-day EMA at $72.55 and 200-day EMA at $75.68, signaling macro weakness.

Unless prices reclaim $68.59 quickly, further downside toward the 2.272 Fib extension at $59.91 is in play. With RSI still not oversold, momentum favors sellers. This chart is leaning heavily bearish.