Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Technical Barriers Limit Short-Term Bullish Momentum

Market Overview

Crude oil prices edged higher this week amid intensifying geopolitical tensions and shifting U.S. trade policies, signaling continued volatility for global energy markets. Market participants are weighing tariff relief on electronics and autos against potential semiconductor restrictions, all while nuclear negotiations loom in the background.

U.S. exemptions on key imports have lent modest support to risk assets like oil, yet the unpredictable nature of trade policy has kept sentiment fragile.

China’s crude imports rose 4.7% year-over-year in March to 52.3 million metric tons, reflecting stockpiling ahead of anticipated supply disruptions. Kazakhstan’s oil output slipped 3% in early April but remained above its OPEC+ quota.

Despite the uptick, oil demand forecasts face pressure from fragile macro signals and policy unpredictability.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas futures are under pressure again, slipping to $3.35 after failing to reclaim the $3.46 resistance. The price is caught in a well-defined downtrend, with a descending trendline and lower highs reinforcing bearish control. The pivot point sits at $3.30, acting as a short-term support line. Below that, the next floor lies at $3.23.

The 50 EMA at $3.51 and the 200 EMA at $3.77 both loom overhead, confirming the broader bearish structure. The market remains unable to sustain any upward moves, and the rejection near the EMAs keeps sellers firmly in charge.

Without a breakout above $3.46, the path of least resistance is lower. Bears may soon test the $3.23 region if selling pressure resumes.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

After last week’s aggressive selloff, WTI crude oil is stabilizing within a rising triangle pattern, hinting at a possible breakout. The pivot point sits at $60.92 (green line), providing a critical level for short-term sentiment. Immediate resistance stands at $62.00, with the next ceiling at $63.31. On the downside, $60.00 marks immediate support, followed by a deeper level at $59.01.

The 50 EMA is at $61.24, slightly below price action, suggesting short-term bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the 200 EMA rests higher at $64.88, reinforcing longer-term bearish pressure.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is holding just below a key resistance zone at $66.04, gradually climbing along an ascending trendline. The pivot point sits at $63.99 (green line), anchoring the recent consolidation. If bulls push through this ceiling, the next challenge lies at $67.73. On the downside, immediate support is found at $63.00, with stronger demand expected at $61.93.

The 50 EMA at $64.56 is acting as short-term support, while the 200 EMA, currently at $67.83, continues to cap upward momentum.

Price action looks constructive, but it’s stuck in a narrow range. Traders are watching for a decisive breakout above $66.04—or a slip below $63.99—to determine if the next leg is higher or if another pullback is brewing.