Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: U.S. Policy on Venezuelan Oil Shakes Markets

Market Overview

Geopolitical tensions are significantly influencing the global energy landscape, leading to notable fluctuations in oil and natural gas markets. Recent policy shifts, such as the U.S. administration’s decision to revoke Chevron’s license in Venezuela, have heightened concerns over supply disruptions. This action affects approximately 240,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude exports, over a quarter of the country’s output.

Concurrently, unexpected builds in U.S. fuel inventories suggest potential weakening demand, adding complexity to the market dynamics. Additionally, ongoing international negotiations are contributing to market volatility, as potential resolutions could alter existing sanctions and trade flows.

Analysts emphasize that while seasonal demand patterns are shifting, the overarching influence of geopolitical factors remains a critical determinant in forecasting energy prices.

Investors are advised to closely monitor these developments, as they present both risks and opportunities within the energy sector.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) is trading at $3.94, down 0.38%, showing some hesitation as it hovers around the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The immediate support sits at $3.75, with a deeper cushion at $3.55. If prices break below $3.75, we could see a sharper sell-off, possibly testing the next support level.

On the upside, resistance is at $4.09, with a stronger barrier at $4.23. A break above $3.98, which is the pivot point, could trigger buying momentum, pushing prices toward the resistance levels.

Keep an eye on the 200 EMA at $3.56—if prices dip below this, the bearish trend could accelerate. For now, the outlook remains bullish above $3.98, but caution is warranted.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

USOIL (WTI) is trading at $68.75, down 0.03%, showing signs of weakness as it struggles below the Pivot Point at $69.25. The next key support is at $67.98, with a deeper floor at $66.96. If prices break below $67.98, we could see further selling pressure, possibly driving prices toward the lower support.

On the upside, resistance is at $70.07, with a stronger hurdle at $71.20. A break above $69.25 could shift momentum to the bulls, potentially pushing prices toward these resistance levels. However, with prices trading below the 50 EMA at $70.47 and the 200 EMA at $71.94, the short-term trend remains bearish.

For now, the bias leans bearish below $69.25, but watch for any break above this pivot to confirm a reversal.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

UKOIL (Brent) is trading at $72.26, holding steady with no significant change. It’s sitting right at the Pivot Point of $72.26, a key level to watch. If prices stay above this, there’s potential for a move towards the next resistance at $73.10, with a stronger barrier at $74.05.

What’s interesting here is the Triple Bottom pattern forming, which is typically a bullish signal. If the price breaks above $73.10, it could confirm the pattern and push higher.

However, if it falls below the immediate support at $70.74, the outlook could turn bearish, possibly testing the next support at $69.88. For now, the trend leans bullish above $72.26, but caution is needed around this pivot point.