Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Will OPEC+ Output Hike Push Prices Below Key Levels?

Market Overview

Oil prices declined for a third consecutive session, pressured by OPEC+’s decision to increase output by 138,000 barrels per day (bpd) in April and escalating trade tensions impacting global demand.

The group’s gradual supply hike follows a nearly 6 million bpd reduction, roughly 6% of global consumption. Meanwhile, new U.S. tariffs—25% on Mexican imports, 10% on Canadian energy, and a doubling of Chinese duties to 20%—are fueling economic slowdown fears, raising concerns about declining fuel consumption in the world’s largest oil consumer.

Additionally, a U.S. policy shift threatens 200,000 bpd of Venezuelan supply, further complicating energy markets as crude inventories fell by 1.46 million barrels last week.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) is trading at $4.36, slightly down 0.11%, but holding above its pivot point at $4.28—a key threshold for short-term direction. The 50-day EMA at $4.11 is reinforcing near-term support, while the 200-day EMA at $3.88 suggests an underlying uptrend.

If prices remain above $4.28, bullish momentum could drive NG toward $4.55, with a breakout potentially targeting $4.72. However, a failure to hold support could accelerate selling pressure, leading to a test of $4.06 and deeper declines toward $3.75.

Traders should monitor volume near resistance levels—sustained buying above $4.55 may confirm a breakout, while weakness below $4.28 could signal further downside.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil (USOIL) is trading at $67.71, up 0.07%, but remains under pressure below the key pivot point at $68.37. The 50-day EMA at $69.41 and 200-day EMA at $71.31 suggest a bearish trend in the short term.

A decisive break above $68.37 could shift momentum toward $70.32, with further upside potential at $71.72 if buying pressure strengthens. However, failure to clear resistance may lead to renewed selling, targeting $66.59, with deeper support at $65.26.

The price action remains uncertain, and traders should watch for a confirmed breakout above $68.37 to validate a bullish reversal, while sustained weakness below this level could signal further downside risk.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude (UKOIL) is trading at $70.82, up 0.03%, but still hovering below the pivot point at $71.26, a key level that could determine its next move. The 50-day EMA at $72.77 and 200-day EMA at $74.78 suggest a broader bearish trend.

If prices manage to break above $71.26, upside momentum could push UKOIL toward $73.41, with a stronger target at $74.89.

On the downside, failure to reclaim $71.26 could lead to further declines, with support at $69.72 and deeper losses toward $68.52. Traders should watch for a confirmed breakout above $71.26 for bullish signals, while continued weakness below this level may reinforce the current downtrend.