Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Will OPEC+ Output Hike Trigger a Price Collapse?

Market Overview

Oil prices extended losses as OPEC+ confirmed a planned output hike of 138,000 barrels per day in April—the group’s first increase since 2022—raising concerns of oversupply. Additional pressure came from new U.S. tariffs, with a 25% levy on Canadian and Mexican imports and an increase on Chinese goods to 20%.

Analysts warn these measures could slow economic activity and dampen fuel demand. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions continue to influence market sentiment, particularly regarding potential shifts in Russian energy flows.

Despite speculation over sanctions relief, Goldman Sachs suggests Russia’s supply remains more constrained by OPEC+ targets than external restrictions.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

At $4.10, the price of Natural Gas (NG) is hovering just above its pivot point of $3.99, signaling a critical inflection zone. The 50-day EMA at $3.95 provides a near-term floor, while the 200-day EMA at $3.62 underscores a broader uptrend. A sustained hold above $3.99 keeps the bullish structure intact, with immediate resistance at $4.23 and a more significant hurdle at $4.44.

However, a break below $3.99 could shift momentum, triggering a move toward $3.75 or even $3.55. The current consolidation suggests buyers are stepping in, but a definitive push past $4.23 would confirm strength.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

U.S. crude (USOIL) is treading water at $68.01, sitting just below its pivot point of $68.37. The technical setup leans bearish in the short term, with the 50-day EMA at $69.88 acting as overhead resistance and the 200-day EMA at $71.53 reinforcing a broader downtrend.

A failure to reclaim $68.37 could push prices lower, with immediate support at $66.59 and deeper downside risk toward $65.26. On the flip side, a decisive break above $68.37 could shift momentum, setting the stage for a move toward $70.32.

Traders should watch for volume confirmation—if buyers step in above resistance, it could signal renewed upside, but continued weakness below $68.37 may keep oil under pressure.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude (UKOIL) is trading at $71.06, dipping just below its pivot point of $71.89 and signaling potential weakness. The 50-day EMA at $73.34 and the 200-day EMA at $75.03 suggest a bearish bias in the broader trend. If prices fail to reclaim $71.89, sellers may push the market lower, with immediate support at $69.88 and further downside risk toward $68.66.

However, a break above $71.89 could shift sentiment, targeting resistance at $73.67 and potentially $74.89. The price action remains in a tight range, with traders looking for confirmation. A sustained move above resistance could trigger buying interest, while continued weakness below $71.89 may keep Brent under pressure in the near term.