Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Will OPEC+ Talks Trigger New Volatility in May?

Market Overview

Crude oil prices are on track for a second straight weekly decline, with Brent expected to drop 3.2% and WTI by 2.9%, following an 11% slump the week prior. Escalating geopolitical tensions and deteriorating global trade dynamics are fueling fears of an economic slowdown, pressuring energy markets.

Analysts warn that if global GDP growth slips below 3%, oil demand could shrink by 1%. The U.S. Energy Information Administration has slashed both domestic and global demand forecasts, citing trade disruptions.

Markets now await the May 5 OPEC+ meeting, which could determine whether supply policy will tighten or trigger further volatility.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas futures are trading around $3.56 on the 4-hour chart, showing mild recovery after bouncing off the $3.40 zone. The price is attempting to reclaim ground but remains below the 50 EMA at $3.75 and the 200 EMA at $3.88, keeping the broader bias tilted bearish.

Immediate resistance stands at $3.64, with a stronger ceiling near $3.83. On the downside, support holds at $3.40, followed by $3.15. The descending trendline from mid-March continues to act as a key barrier.

A break above $3.64 could open the way for a test of the $3.83–$4.09 range. Until then, any upside looks limited. Momentum is improving but remains fragile. Watch for volume and follow-through above $3.64.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Crude Oil is trading at $60.79 on the 4-hour chart, holding just below the key pivot at $61.07. Immediate resistance sits at $61.09, with the next barrier at $63.31. Support is seen at $58.46, followed by $56.58.

The 50 EMA is at $62.93, and the 200 EMA remains higher at $66.94, reinforcing the broader bearish trend. RSI has climbed to 48, signaling modest recovery momentum, but not enough to confirm a reversal.

A clean break above $61.09 could open the door for further gains toward $63.31, while failure to do so might trigger another dip to support. For now, traders should remain cautious and watch for a decisive move above resistance.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Crude is trading around $64.02, staging a modest rebound after defending support at $62.36, which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Price remains capped below $64.87 (38.2% Fib), while the 50 EMA at $66.21 and the 200 EMA at $70.38 continue to press from above, keeping the broader trend bearish.

A break above $64.87 could open room to test $66.88, with $68.89 marking a stronger resistance. On the downside, failure to hold $62.36 could pull price toward $60.39 or even $58.36.

The short-term structure is still fragile, but momentum is picking up. Traders should watch for a break above the Fib cluster near $64.87 to assess whether bulls are gaining traction.