Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: WTI Below $63.50 as Traders React to Iran Negotiations

By:

Arslan Ali

Published: Apr 21, 2025, 07:24 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

WTI crude dipped below $63.50 as U.S.-Iran nuclear talks raise prospects of increased global oil supply.
Natural gas prices hover near $3.18, struggling to clear resistance at $3.23 amid weak momentum and bearish structure.
Brent crude holds above $66.99, but key resistance at $68.15 capped gains; breakout could signal bullish continuation.

In this article:

Natural Gas

-0.19%

WTI Oil

-1.25%

Brent Oil

-1.11%

Market Overview

WTI crude oil futures declined to under $63.50 per barrel Monday, pressured by easing supply concerns as the U.S. and Iran advanced toward a potential nuclear agreement. Market sentiment softened after both sides reportedly agreed to draft a negotiation framework, with a third round of talks scheduled in Oman.

The prospect of revived Iranian exports tempered recent supply-driven gains. Meanwhile, persistent global trade tensions and fragile ceasefire conditions in Eastern Europe continued to cloud demand forecasts.

Amid weakening economic signals and geopolitical friction, traders remain defensive, with energy markets responding more to diplomacy than to escalation—for now.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) Price Chart

Natural gas is trading around $3.18, struggling to break above a descending trendline and key resistance at $3.23. The broader trend remains bearish, with prices suppressed below the 50-period EMA at $3.31 and the 200 EMA near $3.61. A decisive move above $3.23 could target $3.35 and $3.45 next, but momentum remains weak.

On the downside, $3.10 serves as immediate support, followed by $2.99. The market remains in a tight consolidation zone, and sellers still dominate below the trendline.

Unless bulls reclaim $3.23 with conviction, the path of least resistance remains lower. Watch for volume confirmation on any breakout or a fade toward the $2.88 level if pressure builds.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

WTI crude oil is hovering near $63.03 after briefly tapping $63.96 resistance, where the 200-period EMA capped gains. The price remains above the 50 EMA ($62.09) and an ascending trendline, hinting at underlying bullish structure.

However, the rejection at the 200 EMA signals hesitation. Immediate support lies at $62.07, followed by $59.89. A sustained move above $63.96 is needed to open the door toward $65.98 and $67.84.

Conversely, slipping below $62.07 could drag prices back toward $59.89. Momentum remains neutral-to-bullish, but oil needs stronger volume to sustain the uptrend. All eyes are on whether USOIL can reclaim the 200 EMA—or break trendline support to confirm a shift.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Price Chart

Brent crude oil is trading at $66.99 after stalling below $68.15—where the 200-period EMA ($67.29) and horizontal resistance converge. Price remains above both the 50 EMA ($65.82) and a steep ascending trendline from April’s lows, signaling ongoing bullish momentum. Support at $66.54 has held firm so far.

A breakout above $68.15 could target $70.21 and $72.21 next. However, rejection here could spark a drop toward $65.82, with deeper support at $64.23. Bulls must defend $66.54 to maintain the uptrend.

Volume and macro cues will be crucial as price consolidates beneath key resistance. Traders should watch for a close above $68.15 or breakdown below trendline support for direction.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

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