Natural Gas Forecast: ABCD Pattern Targets 2.79 amid Rising Trend Channel

Natural Gas Forecast Video for 14.06.23 by Bruce Powers

Natural gas breaks out above Monday’s 2.32 high and is on track to close above it. If it does, then the continuation of the advance off the 2.14 low from the beginning of June is confirmed. Natural gas should now progress towards the top of the rising trend channel.

ABCD Pattern Targets 2.79

A rising ABCD pattern has been added to the chart that starts the C leg at the low from two weeks ago. If the ABCD pattern hits its target as contemplated, natural gas would be at 2.79. That is smack in the middle of a potential resistance zone from 2.77 to 2.83 derived from several Fibonacci levels, plus the 100-Day EMA, and trendline at the top of the channel. Since the initial ABCD pattern target is also within that zone, it seems more likely to eventually be reached. Given that the prior two rallies completed in 10 days and the previous in seven days, it could happen fast. However, there are no signs of that yet and the current advance is in its eighth day.

Weekly Chart Signal

On a weekly chart, natural gas is trading inside last week’s range as well as the range from two weeks ago. A weekly bullish breakout will occur on daily close above last week’s high of 2.38. Weekly price levels are more significant and therefore the reaction to price can be more aggressive upon a move through a weekly pivot.

At the beginning of the prior rally there was also an inside week that began the more rapid ascent of the rally. Once the inside week breakout triggered, natural gas rapidly advanced to find a top at 2.69 that same week. Will something similar happen this time? We’ll have to watch closely but it is good to know that potential exists.

Prior Rallies Provide Clues

As noted in earlier articles, the three previous rallies off the bottom were each over 29%, low to high. Certainly, the current rally has the potential to match or exceed that performance. The current advance will match 29% at a price of 2.76. That’s 0.01 below the target zone discussed above.

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