Natural Gas Forecast: Weather Forecast Points Predicts Limited Demand

Highlights

• Memorial Day weekend brings no significant changes to natural gas fundamentals.
• Short-term weather forecast predicts limited demand for natural gas.
• Mountain Valley gas pipeline may receive federal approval in debt limit deal.

Overview

Natural gas is under pressure on Tuesday after the long Memorial Day holiday weekend, failed to signal any major changes in the fundamentals.

At 11:04 GMT, Natural Gas is trading $2.2015, down $0.0005 or -0.02%. Last Friday, the United States Natural Gas Fund ETF (UNG) settled at $6.64, down $0.12 or -1.85%.

Short-Term Weather Outlook

According to NatGasWeather.com, traders are expecting the weather patterns to remain unfavorable for natural gas prices in the first week of June. Localized areas have limited high temperatures reaching the 90s, while pleasant temperatures in the 70s and 80s prevail across most of the United States, resulting in light to very light national demand for natural gas.

Anticipated from May 26 to July 1, an active weather pattern will bring showers and thunderstorms across the country, with temperatures ranging from the 60s to 80s, resulting in light national demand, except for the hotter 90s in the Southwest deserts and South Texas. This morning, temperatures in the Great Lakes and Northeast regions will be cooler than usual as a weather system moves out, with overnight lows in the upper 30s and 40s, leading to a slight increase in heating demand.

Energy Information Administration Weekly Storage Report

Working gas in storage was 2,336 Bcf as of Friday, May 19, 2023, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 96 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 529 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 340 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,996 Bcf. At 2,336 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

Mountain Valley Natural Gas Pipeline Nears Federal Approval in U.S. Debt Limit Deal

In other news, Equitrans Midstream Corp’s Mountain Valley natural gas pipeline, worth $6.6 billion, may receive federal approval as part of a budget deal aimed at resolving the debt limit crisis in the United States.

The streamlined approval process for the 303-mile pipeline was included in the budget deal between President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

The project has faced delays due to unfavorable court rulings and opposition from environmental groups. Democratic Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, who supports the pipeline, plays a crucial role in the Democrats’ thin majority.

The pipeline’s federal permits would be expedited, and judicial review would be limited under the proposed legislation. Equitrans had previously estimated completion by the end of 2023 but acknowledged the significant risks and uncertainties, including ongoing litigation.

The pipeline project still requires review and permitting, and it could face further delays or legal challenges. Mountain Valley is jointly owned by Equitrans, NextEra Energy Inc, Consolidated Edison Inc, AltaGas Ltd, and RGC Resources Inc.

Short-Term Outlook

Technical and fundamental analysis indicate the bearish trend is still intact. This assessment is being validated by today’s early weakness. Unless there is a major shift in demand, favorable weather conditions and rising production on expected to weigh on the market.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas is trading on the weakside of $2.432 (R1).  A sustained move under this level will signal the presence of sellers. If this generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into $2.168 (Pivot), followed by $1.962 (S1).

Overcoming this level will indicate the return of buyers with $2.638 (R2) the next target. Last week’s rally stopped a little under this level.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.