Natural Gas News: Bearish Forecast Builds as Tariff Risks Cloud LNG Demand Outlook

Natural Gas Slips as Tariffs Cast Demand Shadow

Natural gas futures ended lower Friday, weighed by escalating US-China trade tensions that raised doubts about future LNG demand. May contracts fell for a second session after China hiked tariffs on US goods to 125%, in direct response to the US raising tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%. The trade risk prompted risk-off positioning, though futures pared losses intraday on firm LNG exports and tight storage expectations later this season.

On Friday, U.S. Natural Gas Futures Settled at $3.527, down $0.030 or -0.84%.

LNG Exports Remain Firm, But Demand Risk Lingers

Despite macro headwinds, LNG exports held strong. Net flows to US export terminals reached 16.3 Bcf/d on Friday, up 9.1% week-over-week. This remains a key area of support for prices. Traders are also watching US storage levels, which BloombergNEF projects will be 10% below the five-year average by summer—keeping bullish positioning alive even as near-term drivers remain mixed.

Storage Injection Caps Upside Despite Supply Tightness

EIA data showed a +57 Bcf injection for the week ended April 4, broadly in line with expectations but well above the five-year average of +17 Bcf for this period. Storage remains 2.1% below the five-year norm and 19.8% under last year, signaling tight underlying supply. Still, the size of the injection gave the market little reason to rally.

Dry gas production held at 106.2 Bcf/d, up 4.7% y/y, while demand reached 76.7 Bcf/d, up 11.4% y/y. Electricity output rose 4.05% y/y, suggesting firm baseline power burn, but not yet summer-driven demand.

Mixed Weather and Modest Rig Uptick Add Pressure

Weather outlooks are neutral to slightly bearish. The Commodity Weather Group sees above-normal temps in the West and seasonal conditions elsewhere from April 16–20—limiting late-season heating demand. Baker Hughes reported an increase of one rig, bringing the gas rig count to 97, still historically low but off recent lows.

Market Forecast: Slightly Bearish Bias Ahead

With trade tension clouding demand outlooks and weather offering no near-term support, nat-gas looks vulnerable to further downside. LNG flows and tight storage remain bullish anchors, but unless a weather or export catalyst emerges, price action may continue to drift lower in the near term.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.