Natural Gas News: Bullish Market Eyes Pivot at $4.317 After Weather Report Boost

Natural Gas Futures Push Higher, Eyes on Key Pivot as Weather and Exports Support Market

U.S. natural gas futures surged higher to start the week, building on Friday’s rally as May contracts take over the front-month position. A bullish technical gap at the open is driving expectations for a near-term test of the key short-term pivot at $4.317—a level that could set the tone for the rest of the week’s trade.

Futures rose following a 14.0-cent jump on Friday, propelled by persistent support from flat production and robust export demand. The bullish momentum early Monday signals a possible extension of last week’s rally, particularly if prices can maintain traction above $4.317. A sustained move above this pivot opens the door toward multi-month highs at $4.713 and $4.901.

At 13:45 GMT, Natural Gas Futures are trading $4.156, up $0.091 or +2.24%.

Can Bulls Clear Resistance at $4.317 to Extend the Rally?

The $4.317 level stands out as a critical short-term pivot. A clear break and hold above it would likely embolden bulls to target resistance at $4.713 and potentially $4.901—levels not seen in months. However, failure to break through $4.713 would signal a possible exhaustion of the recent rally and the reemergence of sellers.

Still, any pullback from resistance may be met with buying interest. Support lies at the 50-day moving average of $3.821, with last week’s low of $3.732 acting as a crucial threshold.

A drop below $3.732 would expose the market to downside risk, with a potential slide toward $3.350. In essence, the market remains bullish above $3.924 and especially $4.317, while a sustained move below $3.821 could usher in a bearish phase.

Will Colder Weather Trends Offer Additional Tailwind?

Weather forecasts are providing further tailwinds for bulls. NatGasWeather reports that the latest weekend data trended colder, with a notable cold shot expected to move into the Midwest and Northeast from April 7–9, adding a significant number of heating degree days (HDDs). This colder shift supported the gap-up open and may provide added momentum if short-term demand spikes.

That said, national demand remains moderate to low in the current week, with milder conditions dominating the southern and eastern U.S. through April 6. Still, short-term weather risk appears skewed to the upside as traders eye the early April cold spell.

Could Cash Markets Rebound After Last Week’s Weakness?

Cash prices struggled last week but could see localized strength in northern markets in the near term. If the cold snap materializes, it may lend support to spot prices and reinforce the bullish sentiment in futures, especially if supply constraints or LNG export strength continue.

Short-Term Outlook: Bullish Above Key Levels

With technical momentum favoring bulls and weather data turning colder for early April, the short-term outlook is bullish. A breakout above $4.317 confirms upside potential toward $4.713 and beyond. However, any rejection at those highs and a slide below $3.821 would shift sentiment quickly. For now, traders should lean bullish while closely watching resistance levels and weather-driven demand cues.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.