Natural Gas News: EIA Report Expected to Drive Volatility—Is a Bullish Rebound Ahead?

U.S. Natural Gas Prices Edge Lower Ahead of Storage Report

U.S. natural gas prices are slightly lower on Thursday as investors await the latest government storage report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Near-term demand remains mild, though forecasts for colder weather later in the month suggest potential demand increases. In the immediate term, traders expect a bearish storage report, which could add to downward price pressure.

At 13:36 GMT, Natural Gas Futures are trading $2.950, down $0.033 or -1.11%.

Key Technical Levels: Resistance and Support

Natural gas futures are approaching a critical resistance cluster, marked by a pivot at $3.044 and the 50-day moving average at $3.051. If prices break above this range, it could prompt a stronger upward movement. Conversely, immediate support is at $2.825, a level traders are watching as a threshold for possible further declines. With the resistance zone acting as a potential breakout level, any sustained move above it could attract fresh buying interest, whereas a downturn below $2.825 may signal additional weakness.

Bearish Storage Build Expected in Today’s EIA Report

Market consensus points to a larger-than-average storage build in today’s EIA report, with projections ranging between 41 and 44 billion cubic feet (Bcf) — above the five-year seasonal average increase of 29 Bcf. This would add to an already elevated storage level and could weigh on prices in the short term, especially with limited immediate demand. While U.S. natural gas production has been somewhat lighter recently, supportive for prices, the anticipated storage injection and ongoing mild weather outlook pose challenges to a sustained rally.

Mixed Weather Outlook for November

NatGasWeather reports that cooler temperatures, rain, and snow are expected across the western and northern U.S. through November 20, which could increase regional heating demand. However, much of the southern and eastern U.S. will see warmer temperatures in the 60s-80s, keeping demand subdued across major population centers. Overall, demand is expected to remain light through the next seven days, although forecasts for colder weather in the latter half of November present some upside demand potential.

Market Forecast

In the near term, U.S. natural gas prices face downward pressure from today’s anticipated storage build and ongoing mild temperatures in much of the country. However, a shift to colder weather patterns later in November, combined with steady LNG export demand, could create a foundation for a bullish reversal if heating demand accelerates. Traders should watch the $3.044-$3.051 resistance closely, as a break above this range could trigger upward momentum, while a decline below $2.825 may suggest additional bearish movement ahead.