The natural gas market continues to see a lot of erratic behavior, as the market is trying to price in the idea of a winter blast in the United States, and of course we still have the lack of Russian gas reaching the European Union and beyond.
The Natural gas markets have gone back and forth during the trading session on Thursday in the early hours as we are dancing around the gap that was formed earlier this week. Cold weather in the United States, of course, is going to drive demand in the short term, but I would specify short term. Remember, the futures market drives what you see in the CFD market, and therefore you need to understand where your broker gets its price from. Is it an average for the next three months or is it the next front month contract in the futures market?
Futures traders are going to be focusing on spring relatively soon. In the next few weeks, they’ll start to shift their attention a little bit and that could cause some issues. I think at this point natural gas probably has one more bounce left in it. So, on a short-term pullback and a bounce I would probably take advantage of that. But after that you start to run out of winter despite the fact that it’ll be cold for a few more months, mainly due to those futures traders.
The $4 level in the spot market of course has attracted a certain amount of attention and the $3.40 level had been massive resistance previously. So as long as we can stay above there you have to think more to the upside than the down but losing that would of course be very negative.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.