The natural gas market has bounced slightly during the early hours of Thursday, but we are still massively negative at the moment, and there is almost no real signs of hope for bulls currently.
The natural gas market recovered slightly during the trading session on Thursday. But at this point, I think the best setup that you have is a potential short covering rally because quite frankly, natural gas markets are dead. They have seen so much selling pressure that I’m astonished that we’re still seeing selling pressure overall.
It looks like we could go down to the $1.50 level, and that is an area that I think will capture a lot of minds due to the psychology of it. But with winter pretty much over in North America, we might get one or two storms, but that’s going to cause at best a short-term spike. Now, I do think there is a short-covering rally coming, and if and when that happens, it could be quite vicious because after all, there’s not much further to go to the downside.
At this point, natural gas will end up being free. Obviously, that can’t hold, so sooner or later this is a great investment. The investment might be something that lasts for a few months or a year, you just don’t know. This is the type of market that has gotten so far ahead of itself that it’s left all reasoning behind. The fact that gas is so cheap now is pretty astonishing, especially considering that Russia is offline for most countries, maybe with the exception of China and India. But at this point, it doesn’t look like even a lack of Russian gas seems to be helping. The Americans are just simply flooding the world with liquefied natural gas coming out of places like Louisiana.
With this being the case, I think you have to look at any rally with suspicion. But if you do find yourself trying to play the short covering rally, you will have to be very nimble to collect your profits. If we can recapture the $2 level, that might be a good sign, at least for a range bound play.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.