Natural gas markets have rallied again as it looks like fears over the Groningen gas fields closing down in Europe means that people suspect that the Europeans are rushing toward liquefied natural gas in America.
Natural gas markets rallied slightly during the trading session on Friday, as we continue to worry about the European supply. The Groningen area of Holland has a large natural gas field that is about to shut down, and that is going to cause even more pressure on European supply. Because of this, liquefied natural gas out of the United States is the obvious answer, and I do believe that some of the bigger players out there are starting to pay close attention to this. With that being the case, the market is likely to continue to see some upward pressure, and I do think that longer-term traders are starting to build up a position for what is almost certainly going to be a very volatile fall.
Underneath, the 50-Day EMA comes into the picture as well, offering support. That being said, I think you need to look at the larger picture, meaning that we are more likely than not going to continue to see a lot of back-and-forth trading. I do believe that the “summer range” is between $2.00 and $3.00, and we are somewhere near the middle of it. Because of this, it’s probably a 50-50 shot as to where we go next. That being said, once we get through the end of the summer, it’s very likely that natural gas will be a very bullish market to say the least.
Because of this, I think you need to be very cautious, but in the short term it’s probably more or less going to remain a range bound market. Yes, there are some bullish tailwinds out there, and if we can pay close attention to it, the market is going to continue to see reasons to go higher, but I think we are still very much in the midst of a consolidation range, but every time we dip, I suspect that traders are out there trying to put a little bit of money to work. Because of this, I think you’ve got the “buying the dips” mentality starting to creep into the natural gas market.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.