Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Take Off Again

Natural Gas Price Forecast Video for 19.12.23

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

Natural gas markets have rallied again during the day on Monday, for the 4^th day in a row. Breaking above the $2.50 level of course is a psychological victory, but we have a lot of things to think about at this point. To begin with, the natural gas markets are threatening the 20-Day EMA, an indicator that has been fairly reliable in its downtrend over the last couple of weeks. Beyond that, we also have to keep in mind whether or not traders might be short covering heading into the holidays as they have made a lot of money in a very short amount of time.

While it is a good time of year for natural gas typically, the reality is that the last 2 months have been miserable. This is despite the fact that there were a lot of concerns in Europe to begin with, but we have since seen the supply of natural gas skyrocket, which of course works against the value of it. Regardless, we had gotten oversold, so an oversold bounce does make a certain amount of sense. Whether or not it is something that you can buy remains to be seen, but I think that what we are looking at is an attempt to set some type of range for the long term. The $2.00 level underneath would make a good candidate for support, while the $3.33 level above makes a good candidate for resistance.

In the short term, we probably have further to go to the upside, if for no other reason than the aforementioned short covering possibility. Furthermore, it is probably only a matter of time before we get winter weather in the United States, and that should drive up demand as well. According to the markets, we are no longer worried about the coup d’état in Western Africa that made supply an issue, and of course the war in Ukraine, both of which have the Europeans paying more for natural gas, but not enough to reach out to the Americans. At this point, it looks like it’s a short-term bullish market, but this winter has been really bad for natural gas, and I just don’t see how that changes for anything longer than a short-term rip to the outside.

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