Natural Gas Price Outlook – Natural Gas Continues to See Volatility

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

The natural gas market has rallied pretty significantly in the early hours to gain about 2.8 % and with that being said, I think we have a situation where traders are going to be watching this area right around $4.25 or so, as it has been significantly resistance as of late. Underneath, we have quite a bit of support near the 50 day EMA and while the technical analysis is, I’d say more or less neutral at the moment, the cycle this time of year is typically very poor. So, I’m waiting to see whether or not we get a significant breakdown.

After all, I’m doing this analysis here with the window open. So, obviously, heating demand in America is starting to shrink. If that’s going to be the case, that has a major effect on natural gas, but we’ll also have to see what the Europeans have to do about supplying their natural gas. They have been buying Russian gas, but now it looks like they may try not to somehow, that means buying from the Americans, but they also find themselves in a bit of a tariff spat with Americans.

So, I think you are probably going to continue to see a lot of volatility here before we eventually break down. Part of what may have caused natural gas to rise is just a simple dollar selling off situation. We just don’t know, but this time of year is extraordinarily difficult until the market just gives it up and crashes. That’s essentially what I’m waiting for. We really haven’t had that signal. I don’t want to chase natural gas in April of all months. So really, this is a sit on your hands type of market until we break down to a fresh new low.

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