Oil News: Can Crude Demand Push Prices Past $70.59 or Will Resistance Hold?

Oil Prices Hold Steady as Traders Assess Key Resistance and Geopolitical Risks

Light crude oil futures edged higher on Monday but faced resistance at $70.35, a key Fibonacci level, and the 200-day moving average at $70.59. A sustained breakout above these levels could trigger a short-covering rally, with $72.06–$72.08 emerging as the next technical target.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at $69.48. A break below this level could accelerate selling pressure, with the next major support at $68.36, last week’s low. A drop through this price point would reinforce bearish momentum, exposing $67.06 as the next potential target for sellers.

At 12:34, Light Crude Oil Futures are $69.85, up $0.09 or $0.13%.

Geopolitical Uncertainty Keeps Oil Markets Cautious

Oil markets remain on edge as geopolitical tensions continue to shape sentiment. Investors are closely monitoring developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, particularly after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy indicated a potential opportunity to restore relations with the U.S. However, recent diplomatic tensions following a heated Oval Office exchange with President Donald Trump have raised concerns over future U.S. support.

Analysts at RBC Capital warn that the rift between Washington and Kyiv could accelerate a reassessment of U.S. sanctions on Russia. Meanwhile, European leaders reaffirmed their commitment to Ukraine, promising increased financial aid. The Kremlin, however, dismissed these efforts, stating they would not bring a resolution to the conflict.

Tariff Uncertainty Weighs on Demand Outlook

Oil traders are also digesting the impact of new U.S. tariffs set to take effect on Tuesday. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed that levies on Canadian and Mexican imports will proceed as planned, though the final rate remains at the discretion of President Trump.

Analysts at PVM caution that while tariffs can slow economic growth and oil demand, they may also curb supply if imposed on key crude-producing nations such as Canada and Mexico. This dual effect is creating uncertainty in the market, preventing a clear directional move in oil prices.

China’s Manufacturing Data Lends Support

Providing some relief to oil bulls, data from China showed manufacturing activity expanded at its fastest pace in three months. The report suggests a possible rebound in industrial demand, offering support to oil prices after both Brent and WTI posted their first monthly declines in three months.

Market Outlook: Cautiously Bearish Without an Upside Breakout Over $70.59

The technical setup suggests crude remains vulnerable unless it can clear key resistance at $70.59. Failure to do so may lead to further downside pressure, especially if price action dips below $68.36. Geopolitical uncertainties and trade policies continue to inject volatility, keeping traders on edge. Unless a significant catalyst emerges, the market leans slightly bearish, with risks skewed to the downside.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.