Oil News: Inventory Surprises and OPEC Meeting Delay Cloud Outlook

Oil Prices Slip on Gasoline Stock Build and Geopolitical Developments

Oil prices edged lower during Asian trading on Thursday following a surprising rise in U.S. gasoline inventories, which cast a shadow over demand expectations in the world’s largest oil consumer.

At 09:30 GMT, Light Crude Oil futures are trading $68.53, down $0.19 or -0.28%.

U.S. Gasoline Stocks Surge Unexpectedly

On Wednesday, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 3.3-million-barrel increase in U.S. gasoline stocks for the week ending November 22. This rise contradicted market expectations of a small draw of 46,000 barrels, despite forecasts of record travel volumes during the Thanksgiving holiday. The build has intensified concerns about weakening fuel demand, a key factor keeping oil markets subdued this year.

U.S. crude inventories, however, fell by 1.8 million barrels over the same period, significantly more than the anticipated draw of 605,000 barrels. Market estimates had previously signaled a potential inventory drop of up to 5.94 million barrels, reflecting mixed signals for crude demand fundamentals.

OPEC+ Meeting Postponement Heightens Supply Uncertainty

OPEC+ remains a central factor for oil traders as discussions around production strategies dominate market sentiment. The group, responsible for nearly half of global oil production, is set to meet on December 5 after postponing its earlier meeting. Key decisions include whether to extend voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day slated to phase out in December.

Reports suggest members are considering delaying planned output increases for January amid persistent demand uncertainties. Ongoing supply curtailments have provided some price support, even as demand concerns in the U.S. and China exert downward pressure.

Middle East Geopolitics Eases Supply Risk

The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire agreement this week eased immediate concerns over disruptions in the oil-rich Middle East, providing a momentary reprieve for global supply stability. However, analysts remain cautious, noting that the geopolitical landscape could quickly reignite risks to production, particularly with Iran’s oil infrastructure at potential risk due to regional tensions.

Market Forecast: Short-Term Bearish Sentiment Prevails

Given the surprising build in U.S. gasoline inventories and persistent demand concerns, the near-term outlook for oil prices leans bearish. However, potential bullish catalysts include OPEC+ decisions on supply adjustments and lingering risks of geopolitical disruptions. Brent and WTI prices are likely to trade within tight ranges until clearer signals emerge from the upcoming OPEC+ meeting and global demand indicators.

Traders should monitor developments in U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical tensions, as these factors could significantly influence market sentiment in the coming weeks.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.