Silver (XAGUSD) Forecast: 200-Day MA Breach Opens Door to Deeper Selloff Toward $28.40

Silver Tumbles as Recession Fears, Margin Calls and China Tariffs Trigger Liquidation

Silver prices are under heavy selling pressure for a second straight session, as a combination of recession concerns, aggressive margin-related liquidations, and intensifying trade tensions between the U.S. and China spark broad-based risk aversion. The metal has broken through several critical technical support levels, placing it in a vulnerable position heading into next week.

At 13:00 GMT, XAGUSD is trading $30.84, down $1.02 or -3.20%.

Key Support Levels Breached

Thursday’s breakdown below the 50-day moving average at $32.52 marked a major technical reversal. Friday’s continuation move sliced through the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $31.81, leading to a test of the 200-day moving average at $30.89. A close below that longer-term level would open the door for a deeper retracement toward $28.40. Resistance on the upside is now clearly defined at $31.81 and $32.53, both of which must be reclaimed to regain bullish footing​.

Margin Calls Amplify Downside in Metals

Silver’s weakness is closely tied to forced selling across asset classes. As U.S. equity markets plummet—highlighted by a 2,000+ point drop in Dow futures over two sessions—margin calls are spilling into metals. Gold, which hit record highs Thursday, also saw liquidation pressure driven by margin demands and a bearish reversal pattern​. These forced exits are compounding silver’s technical damage, dragging prices lower despite ongoing macro tailwinds like elevated inflation and Fed uncertainty.

Tariffs Stoke Global Growth Concerns

Traders are also reacting to the latest tariff escalation, which threatens to further dampen global demand. The U.S. has implemented sweeping reciprocal tariffs affecting over 180 countries, prompting China to respond with a 34% levy on all American goods​. These trade tensions are fueling risk-off flows and heightening fears of a global recession, with JPMorgan now assigning a 60% probability of a U.S. downturn. Weakening GDP forecasts and falling Treasury yields (10-year now at 3.882%) confirm the flight to safety and deteriorating sentiment.

Labor Market Resilience Offers Little Relief

While Friday’s payroll report showed robust job creation and stable wage growth, it has done little to counter the bearish mood. Traders remain focused on liquidity stress, softening real yields, and reduced Fed cut expectations. El-Erian’s revised call for potentially just one rate cut this year removes a key pillar of support for precious metals and leaves silver exposed in the near term.

Market Forecast: Silver Vulnerable Without a Catalyst

With silver breaking key support levels and macro stress intensifying, the short-term outlook remains bearish. A failure to hold the 200-day moving average at $30.89 could accelerate the downside move toward $28.40.

Unless the metal reclaims resistance above $32.53, sellers are in control. Traders should prepare for continued volatility as recession fears, equity market stress, and policy uncertainty remain front and center.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.