Silver (XAGUSD) Forecast: Can the Market Recover After Its Worst Week Since 2020?

Silver Suffers Heavy Losses as Trade Tensions and Margin Liquidations Rattle Demand

Silver posted its worst weekly performance since 2020, falling over 13% as traders grappled with deepening recession fears, forced liquidations, and a deteriorating industrial demand outlook. The selloff reflects mounting macro stress, with trade policy under President Trump playing a central role in reshaping the demand landscape for the metal.

Last week, XAGUSD settled at $29.59, down $4.54 or -12.31%.

Trump’s Tariffs Hit Industrial Demand and Sentiment

President Trump’s announcement of sweeping reciprocal tariffs and targeted measures against China triggered a reassessment of global trade flows and manufacturing prospects. Semiconductor tariffs are particularly bearish for silver, given its widespread industrial applications. China’s response—slapping a 34% levy on all American goods—adds to fears of a drawn-out trade war. The result has been a sharp drop in global demand expectations, particularly in Asia and Europe, two major industrial buyers of silver.

Margin Calls Force Liquidation Across Commodities

A violent decline in equities—highlighted by a 2,000+ point drop in Dow futures—unleashed margin call selling across the board. Silver was hit especially hard as investors were forced to exit positions to cover losses elsewhere. While gold also saw liquidation, its safe-haven bid helped cushion losses. For silver, with weaker monetary demand and no central bank support, the impact was deeper and more sustained.

Dollar Strength, Yields, and Fed Signals in Focus

Silver’s weakness was compounded by a rising U.S. dollar and an uptick in real yields. Treasury markets stabilized after strong jobs data, pushing the 10-year yield back near 3.88%. The dollar gained as expectations for aggressive Fed cuts were scaled back. Traders now turn their attention to this week’s Fed minutes and Thursday’s CPI report, both of which could reshape policy expectations. If the minutes signal hesitation to ease, or if CPI comes in hot, silver could face further headwinds from tighter financial conditions and a stronger dollar.

Market Forecast: Silver Likely to Remain Under Pressure

Unless there’s a reversal in trade policy or a significant rebound in global manufacturing, silver is likely to struggle. The absence of institutional demand, combined with shrinking industrial consumption expectations, leaves little support at current levels. Gold remains the favored hedge in this environment, while silver’s outlook will depend heavily on how trade negotiations, inflation data, and Fed guidance evolve in the coming sessions. Traders should stay focused on demand-side signals and upcoming macro headlines.

Technically, XAGUSD settled in a weak position after taking out the swing bottom at $30.81 and crossing to the weak side of the 52-week moving average at $30.45.

Unless buyers can recapture the 52-week moving average, prices are likely to continue to slide into a 50% level at $27.78, followed by a pair of bottoms at $26.47 to $26.02.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.