Solana Price Analysis: Transaction Volumes Drop 19% in 2025 – Can SOL Drop to $100?

Trading volumes are up 14.3% in the past 24 hours already with $2.8 billion worth of SOL already exchanging hands during that period.

This latest sell-off seems to have started right after the American session closed yesterday as the uptrend exhausted its strength in the lower timeframes.

SOL is currently the worst-performing asset in the top 5 with annual losses of 35.1%, only surpassed by its strongest rival in the smart contracts space, Ethereum (ETH), whose annual retreat currently stands at 43.3%.

On-chain data from DeFi Llama shows that the Solana network’s weekly transaction volumes have dropped by 18.7% since the year started, moving from 65.5 million to 53.2 million by the end of last week.

Surprisingly, the network’s stablecoin balance has been rising steadily in the past few weeks and stands just 2.8% below this year’s peak of $12.86 billion.

That said, trading volumes across Solana’s top DEXs like Jupiter and Raydium have dropped sharply from $28.5 billion during the first week of January to $10 billion by the end of last week.

The meme coin winter has been the most influential driver for this significant retreat and it could be another reason why SOL is performing so badly this year compared to other top assets like XRP (XRP) and Bitcoin (BTC).

SOL Seems Poised to Retest the $112 Support

The daily chart shows that Solana bounced off the $112 level last week and managed to bounce to nearly $140 per token in the past few days. However, negative momentum seems to be accelerating again as bears continue to dominate the price action.

Market sentiment remains heavily depressed as reflected by how meme coins are performing. The top assets in this category like Dogecoin (DOGE) and Shiba Inu (SHIB) have experienced 47.9% and 41.2% drops respectively since the year started while more exotic cryptos like Pepe (PEPE) and Floki (FLOKI) are down 62.3% and 65% respectively.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is retesting the signal line once again during the American session. If the sell-off gains further traction, it is highly likely that SOL will retest the $112 level in the next few days.

Bearish Breakout Below $119 Offers the Highest RR Ratio

A total of $7.2 million worth of long SOL positions have been liquidated in the past 24 hours as the price has dropped below key support levels in the hourly chart.

A falling wedge pattern has emerged in this lower timeframe that could anticipate a short-term reversal if the price bounces off its nearest support levels.

The $119 level is the last line of defense for bulls. A break below this marker would push SOL back to the $112 area, meaning a total downside risk of 5.9%.

The price bounced during the first hour of the American session but the next two to three hours will confirm if the downtrend will resume as SOL hits these next levels of support.

A bearish breakout below the $119 level would offer the highest risk-reward ratio for traders. A short position with a stop price set at around $122 and an exit target of $112 would offer a 2:1 RR ratio.

Meanwhile, a long position if the price bounces above the $120 level – the nearest support for SOL in this lower timeframe – would offer a lower, yet attractive, RR ratio of 1.8.

Momentum indicators favor a bearish outlook. Hence, taking a long position would demand confirmation in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) in the form of a bullish breakout above the signal line.