Since the start of the week, the crypto market has been in a state of equilibrium, as conflicting forces have prevented any decisive movement. Notably, while the approval of a Solana ETFs in Brazil propelled SOL into a 49% rally between August 5 and August 9, the subsequent downward trend saw SOL retrace by 10%, reaching $147 as of August 14.
However, a closer examination of the price chart reveals that SOL has found steady support around the $145 level over the past three days. This stability suggests that market participants are grappling with conflicting signals.
On one hand, the crypto market has been buoyed by positive developments, such as Grayscale’s launch of three new crypto trusts—SUI, Bittensor (TAO), and MKR—on August 13. This move is seen as a sign of growing institutional interest in the sector, potentially paving the way for fresh investments and spreading positive sentiment to altcoins like SOL.
Additionally, the release of dovish U.S. CPI data on August 14 has provided further support for the market. With inflation coming in slightly below expectations, there is growing anticipation that the Federal Reserve may be inclined to cut interest rates in the near future, a scenario that is typically favorable for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
However, these bullish factors have been counterbalanced by ongoing profit-taking and concerns about broader macroeconomic conditions, leading to a stalemate in Solana’s price action.
In response to the dovish U.S. CPI data, Solana traders have been actively placing leveraged bets, with long positions surpassing $150 million. This is reflected in the Solana Liquidation Map, which shows a significant buildup of cumulative long liquidation leverage at the $145 price level.
A detailed analysis of the Solana Liquidation Map reveals that cumulative long liquidation leverage stands at $149.56 million, while short liquidation leverage is considerably lower. This imbalance suggests that bullish sentiment is dominating the market, as traders anticipate further upside potential for SOL.
The substantial volume of long positions indicates that traders are betting on a near-term price increase, driven by the expectation of a favorable macroeconomic environment and continued institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies. This sentiment is further supported by the fact that the current price of SOL remains close to the key support level of $145, where significant buying interest has been observed.
Given the strong support at $145 and the bullish leverage positioning, there are two primary reasons to expect an upward move in Solana’s price in the coming days. First, the dovish U.S. CPI data could lead to a more accommodative monetary policy, boosting demand for risk assets like SOL. Second, the increasing institutional interest, as evidenced by Grayscale’s recent actions, could drive fresh capital into the crypto market, providing additional support for Solana’s price.
Looking ahead, Solana’s price is likely to face resistance around the $165 level, a key psychological barrier that has proven challenging to overcome in the past. The Bollinger Bands and the Chop Zone indicator suggest that SOL is currently in a consolidation phase, with the potential for a breakout to the upside if buying pressure intensifies.
The Bollinger Bands, which are currently narrowing, indicate that a period of low volatility is likely to be followed by a significant price move. If SOL can break above the $150 resistance level with conviction, the next target would be $165, where the upper Bollinger Band is currently situated.
Meanwhile, the Chop Zone indicator, which has been in a mixed state, suggests that market participants are still undecided on the next major move. However, given the prevailing bullish sentiment and the strong support at $145, the odds favor a move towards the $165 resistance level in the near term.
In summary, while Solana’s price has been relatively stable over the past few days, the combination of dovish U.S. CPI data and increasing institutional interest in cryptocurrencies could provide the impetus for a breakout above $150. If this scenario plays out, the $165 resistance level will be the key area to watch for further price action
Ibrahim Ajibade Ademolawa is a seasoned research analyst with a background in Commercial Banking and Web3 startups, specializing in DeFi and TradFi analysis. He holds a B.A. in Economics and is pursuing an MSc in Blockchain.