S&P 500: GM Earnings and Apple’s Next Move Could Shake Up US Indices

Traditional Industries Take Center Stage as Key Economic Indicators

As earnings season intensifies, trader attention may be drawn toward Apple’s report, but the real economic signals are coming from automakers and traditional industries. While the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks continue to dominate headlines, the state of core industries offers a clearer view of U.S. economic momentum.

Auto Tariff Adjustments Reflect Economic Pressures

President Trump is expected to announce adjustments to the 25% auto tariffs on Tuesday, softening their immediate impact. The administration plans to allow automakers to recover up to 3.75% of a U.S.-made vehicle’s value in year one and 2.5% in year two, easing supply chain transitions back to domestic manufacturing. Auto executives, including Ford’s Jim Farley and GM’s Mary Barra, responded positively, signaling a pragmatic shift by the White House to balance trade goals with economic stability.

Automaker Earnings Offer Critical Insights

General Motors will report earnings Tuesday before the bell, providing the first major read on consumer behavior and manufacturing adjustments following the tariffs. Analysts expect GM to beat Q1 estimates as pre-tariff price concerns accelerated vehicle purchases. Still, Deutsche Bank, UBS, and Barclays have downgraded GM, citing long-term uncertainty. Morgan Stanley projects that the 25% tariff could lift car prices by as much as $6,000, raising risks to consumer spending in one of the largest household budget categories.

Energy and Consumer Earnings to Test Economic Resilience

Energy giants ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Shell report Friday, giving traders a look at oil demand trends. Exxon has warned that weaker oil prices could weigh on results, hinting at slowing global demand. Consumer-sector earnings from Coca-Cola, McDonald’s, and Starbucks will provide further clarity on spending patterns and inflation pressures. JPMorgan remains cautiously optimistic on Coca-Cola’s tariff resilience, though global exposure remains a risk.

Tech Stocks Offer Less Reliable Economic Clues

Despite high valuations, tech giants like Apple and Microsoft are less tethered to broader economic trends. Apple’s China-based production and recent tariff exemptions remove it as a reliable bellwether, while Amazon faces China-related headwinds. Meta’s legal challenges further detach tech sector performance from real-time economic conditions.

Market Forecast: Cautious Bearish Bias

The cautious response from automakers, persistent tariff risks, and early signs of weakening energy demand suggest a mildly bearish short-term outlook. Traditional industry earnings are poised to reveal more economic strain than current tech-led market strength implies, making it critical for traders to watch beyond the Magnificent Seven this week.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.