S&P500 and Nasdaq 100: Will NFP Data Energize Tech and Consumer Stocks?

Stock Futures Stall as Jobs Report Looms: Will the Fed Shift Gears?

Stock futures showed little movement early Friday, as markets awaited the crucial nonfarm payrolls data that could shape the Federal Reserve’s next policy decision. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell 45 points, while S&P 500 futures dipped 0.08%, and Nasdaq 100 futures remained steady-to-better.

How Are Different Sectors Performing?

Equities retreated Thursday after record-breaking highs earlier in the week. The S&P 500 has edged up 0.7% week-to-date, driven by strength in the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, which gained 2.5%. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has lagged, down 0.3%. Technology and consumer discretionary stocks remain key drivers of performance, while industrials have underperformed.

Corporate Earnings Fuel After-Hours Market Action

Earnings results from major corporations stirred significant after-hours trading. Ulta Beauty surged 12% after posting better-than-expected fiscal third-quarter results and raising its full-year guidance.

Similarly, Lululemon Athletica gained over 10% on its earnings and revenue beat, reflecting strong consumer demand for premium athletic wear. GitLab also jumped 6% following a major earnings beat and leadership changes.

What Do Economic Indicators Tell Us?

Recent economic data has provided mixed signals about U.S. economic momentum. The ADP employment report showed private payroll growth of 146,000 in November, below expectations for 163,000. Meanwhile, the ISM Services PMI declined to 52.1 in November, reflecting slower expansion compared to October’s 56.

At the same time, the labor market is expected to rebound significantly. November’s nonfarm payrolls are projected to show an addition of 214,000 jobs, far exceeding October’s disappointing gain of 12,000. This could mark the strongest rebound in job growth since disruptions caused by Hurricane Milton and the Boeing strike.

Will the Fed Stick to a Cautious Path?

The Federal Reserve’s upcoming Dec. 17–18 meeting looms large. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has emphasized a deliberate approach, pointing to a resilient labor market and stronger-than-expected economic growth. However, a stronger-than-expected jobs report could complicate the Fed’s rate-cut timeline.

Goldman Sachs analysts forecast 235,000 jobs added in November, higher than consensus estimates. A figure in the 150,000–200,000 range, however, is seen as a “sweet spot” by some traders, as it might limit pressure on the Fed to adjust its dovish stance.

Market Forecast: Could Payroll Data Trigger a Breakout or Sell-Off?

The jobs report holds the potential to drive substantial market moves. A weaker-than-expected number may spark a rally as traders bet on prolonged rate cuts. Conversely, a strong report could temper enthusiasm, raising concerns about the Fed maintaining higher rates for longer.

With markets near record highs and Fed policy in focus, traders should brace for heightened volatility. The immediate direction depends on how labor market data aligns with the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance, setting the stage for next week’s trading.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.