S&P500 Forecast: Boeing and Progressive Rise, Tech Earnings and Trade Talks in Focus

S&P 500 Edges Up as Big Tech Earnings and Trade Talks Take Center Stage

The S&P 500 ticked higher on Monday as traders braced for a heavy week of earnings reports, key economic data, and updates on global trade negotiations. Futures linked to the S&P 500 rose about 0.2%, the Nasdaq 100 added 0.1%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 108 points, or roughly 0.3%.

What’s driving sentiment around trade talks?

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent provided little concrete progress on a China trade deal but hinted that talks with India could produce an agreement soon. Bessent emphasized that the burden to de-escalate was on Beijing, citing China’s trade imbalance with the U.S. Market watchers remain cautious, with Barclays warning that recent optimism is mostly verbal and unlikely to avert a U.S. recession without real action. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s comments last week suggested negotiations with China are ongoing, contradicting Beijing’s earlier claims.

How are earnings setting the tone?

Investors are gearing up for a crucial wave of earnings, with more than 180 S&P 500 companies reporting this week. Key names like Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft are expected to post results, alongside financial and consumer giants like Visa, Coca-Cola, and Eli Lilly. So far, 73% of reporting firms have beaten estimates, slightly below the five-year average of 77%, according to FactSet. However, Wall Street is tempering its second-quarter and full-year forecasts due to uncertain corporate guidance linked to Trump’s tariffs.

Which stocks are making notable moves?

Boeing shares climbed nearly 2% after Bernstein upgraded the stock, citing a more stable outlook post-crisis. Progressive also gained over 1% following a Bank of America upgrade, which pointed to attractive valuations after a recent pullback. On the downside, Domino’s Pizza fell nearly 3% after delivering mixed earnings results, and Eli Lilly dropped almost 2% following a downgrade from HSBC over valuation concerns. Meanwhile, On Holding rose 3% after Citi upgraded the stock, citing strong positioning in the retail sector.

What economic data should traders watch?

This week features critical releases that could shift market sentiment. First-quarter GDP and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge are scheduled for Wednesday, setting the stage for Friday’s closely watched nonfarm payrolls report. These updates will offer fresh clues on growth prospects and the potential direction of Federal Reserve policy.

Market outlook

Although the S&P 500 has bounced off bear market lows seen earlier in April, it remains down 1.5% for the month, while the Dow lags with a 4.5% loss and the Nasdaq holds a modest 0.5% gain. Traders should stay alert for earnings surprises and macro headlines, especially with markets still struggling to break through key resistance levels.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.