The RoboMarkets Weekly Review and Outlook – DAX Back Above 16,000 Points – Thanks to Window Dressing!

Jürgen Molnar, Capital Market Strategist RoboMarkets

30 June 2023

The so-called window dressing led the DAX like a string back above the 16,000 points and turned the 15 percent into 16 percent. We will know on Monday how sustainable this last swing is.

The fundamental environment for equities remains difficult, but that was also the case in the first half of the year and it did not disturb the market. However, the further rise in interest rates is making alternative investments with less risk more and more attractive, so that only a small impulse could be enough to trigger large capital flows into the bond or money market.

Recession, Inflation and Interest Rates Remain the Main Issues

Consumer sentiment in Germany continues to be characterised by increasing uncertainty. Contrary to expectations, the GfK consumer climate index fell to minus 25.4 points in June. In times of rising prices, people are keeping their money together, the propensity to save is increasing. The counteracting decline in the propensity to consume will at some point also be reflected in companies. It is thus the perfect breeding ground for a longer and deeper recession.

With inflation and interest rates, the trio of issues is then complete, which is likely to occupy the stock market in the coming six months as well. In Sintra, Portugal, at the annual meeting of the ECB’s central bank, the two most important participants, Lagarde and Powell, once again made it clear that the fight against inflation is far from over.

Solar Energy Top, Wind Energy Flop!

Things could hardly be more contrary in the renewable energies sector. While the DAX stock Siemens Energy loses almost 40 per cent of its value in just one day, its competitor from the solar sector, SMA Solar, raises its annual forecast once again. As a result, the share was one of the weekly winners on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange with a double-digit increase. At Siemens Energy, the parent company has now partially pulled the ripcord. Siemens is shifting part of its shares into its own pension fund.

This means that the Munich-based company’s balance sheet is no longer burdened as much by the subsidiary’s share price decline. Siemens itself holds almost 32 percent of all Siemens Energy shares. Just under seven percent will now go into the fund. Since the share is on the books at 20 euros and is written off at the current price, there is a book loss of one billion euros. Since the share price did not develop as expected after the IPO, the shares remained on the books, and the remaining 25 percent will probably remain there for a while. For investors, this means either diversifying well in the renewable energy sector or having the right instinct, which, as we know, is not exactly easy on the stock market.

Software Made in Germany Goes to Wall Street

While the big technology companies are increasingly setting the tone in the USA, the MDAX will soon lose one of them to Wall Street as well. The bidding war for Darmstadt-based Software AG has been decided. The two strategic investors Silver Lake and Bain Capital each wanted to acquire a majority share. Silver Lake has now emerged victorious from this poker game and will initially take over 63 percent of Software AG. In a next step, the company is to be delisted from the stock exchange.

Purchasing Managers’ Indices and Labour Market Data Ahead

At the beginning of the coming week, it will be interesting to see whether the gains of the last trading day of the first half of the year can be maintained or how much of this was due to cosmetic measures. In the afternoon, the purchasing managers’ indices from the USA will provide information on how strong the US economy will be in the second half of the year. The significantly upwardly revised GDP figures for the first quarter sent yields on the bond market soaring again. The decisive figure of the week will come on Friday, when the number of new jobs created in the USA will be released. Again, “only” 200,000 jobs are expected and again the number could be far higher than we have seen in recent months.

DAX – Current Supports and Resistances

Supports: 16,050/16,000 + 15,900/15,850 + 15,750/15,700

Resistances: 16,250/16,300 + 16,400/16,450 + 16,500/16,550

This article is from RoboMarkets.